also i'd expect them to do a lot more things we'd notice, like colonization
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @PomoPsiOp
i don't know. maybe you could have a model where having enough intelligence to do colonization makes you realize it's good to drop out of the universe but having enough intelligence to do scouting does not? seems like a stretch
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
Enough intelligence to launch a probe is also enough intelligence to experience societal collapse before the probe returns any useful information.
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Replying to @PomoPsiOp
i can see it happen once by coincidence, i can't really see how it always happening could be an equilibrium across billions of years
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @PomoPsiOp
i mean either the galaxy has been full of such probes for a long time (even though it doesn't have a single von neumann probe) or we got insanely lucky, right
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
The galaxy could be full of one planet graves of civilizations who launched a few probes but didn't have the attention span to colonize other worlds.
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Replying to @PomoPsiOp
aside from whether that's true, that leaves the time dimension. why would we be looking at the right time to see one of these few probes
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
I'm not sure about that. I am however sure that us being the target of such a probe wouldn't be quite luck, as much as the result of the aliens doing what we would do, and targeting a system likely to support life.
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Replying to @PomoPsiOp
if systems likely to support life are rare then aliens are rare too
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
Yes, but aliens who have the ability to search life will search hard for systems that can support life, and select them as targets for exploration. It's possible that many of these probes could have traveled through our system without noticing.
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there's just no way to make the math work unless some of the civilizations are sending a continuous stream of probes over billions of years
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
At any rate, Onamuta is most likely a cigar shaped rock which out-gassed as it approached the sun.
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