The sail could have been traveling for a long time, and the period during which the aliens have been transmitting might not line up with the period we were listening.
if systems likely to support life are rare then aliens are rare too
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Yes, but aliens who have the ability to search life will search hard for systems that can support life, and select them as targets for exploration. It's possible that many of these probes could have traveled through our system without noticing.
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there's just no way to make the math work unless some of the civilizations are sending a continuous stream of probes over billions of years
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