i mostly agree with this post and think it's disturbing that it had to be writtenhttps://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2019/01/11/climate-change-is-not-an-existential-risk/ …
the impression i get is under 3 degrees sensitivity is considered more likely by the median climate scientist than over 3 degrees, but i don't have hard evidence for that
-
-
my claim came from graphs like this https://static.secure.website/wscfus/8154141/dbaffd073fb0d1df4635a86581c05f89.png … plus the models iirc having an average 3.4 deg sensitivity plus likelihood of some sort of fix
-
anyway i don't think 4-5 deg warming by 2100 is super unlikely, just pretty unlikely
- 1 more reply
New conversation -
-
-
this is a good discussion of sensitivity in the light of recent evidencehttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40641-015-0023-5 …
-
(my understanding is recent more empirically based estimates have been more like 2-2.5 than 3, but people disagree about how strongly they're worth updating on compared to other evidence)
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
i don't have any policy opinions, i just get mad when people say the world is going to end without good reason
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.