What probability do you assign to this conditional claim: the US would have been better off overall if the South had won the US civil war?
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Replying to @robinhanson
does this mean "better off in an average world where the south won than in ours"? "better off in a random world where the south won than in ours"? "better off in a random/average world where the south won than a random/average world where it didn't win"?
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @robinhanson
most of the impact is going to be in rerolling the dice
3:01 PM - 8 Dec 2018
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