The latest ICC publication did not meaningfully alter your calculus on this point? I think global warming is potentially the biggest challenge to our political system in general, but, to libertarian thought specifically.
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It's almost as if a malevolent entity perfectly designed a trolley problem that attacks the weaknesses of our political system. It's an existential threat, that will dis proportionally impact poorer people in the third world, that requires collective action, etc...
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Replying to @F_Vaggi @bryan_caplan
No, it's just that the more easily solvable challenges are less cognitively available, because they get solved quickly. But yes, it's a big deal, and millions will die, and then we'll fix it - and need to explain to our kids why we didn't act faster. So, "political dysfunction"?
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At Effective Altruism Global, Oxford researcher John Halstead quantified the risks of global warming. He aligns with the IPCC on basically everything. Says it would be bad but very unlikely *existential* risk. He addresses the "millions will die" claim: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qmHh-cshTCMT8LX0Y5wSQm8FMBhaxhQ8OlOeRLkXIF0/mobilebasic# …
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Replying to @Mike_Strayer @davidmanheim
this seems good, but i'm confused why the author first agrees with annan & hargreaves about fat tails being caused by bad priors, but then uses wagner & weitzman's fat tailed probabilities
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based on this http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.370.6347&rep=rep1&type=pdf … it seems like it would be really hard to justify the 3% chance of >6 deg sensitivity that wagner & weitzman assume
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the different lines of evidence may not be as independent as A&H say, but i'd guess even so conditioning on recent temperature record + paleoclimate + volcano data + models / feedback analysis constrains the pdf much more strongly
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @Mike_Strayer
No in-sample data can constrain the possibility that there are feedback loops that trigger outside of the range being observed - IIRC, fundamental uncertainty about representing / including them drives most of the tail uncertainty found in some models.
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Replying to @davidmanheim
i'm trying to understand this and why A&H don't think seem to think it's important. are these longer term (centuries) feedbacks? are they part of ESS instead of ECS? W&W say "eventually" but 21st and maybe 22nd century seem a lot more relevant
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
apparently according to AR5 TCR is "extremely unlikely" (0-5%) above 3 deg
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i haven't seen a calculation where they take all the major evidence into account but correct for the "out of sample" thing. suspect it's still hard to get that fat a tail
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