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VesselOfSpirit's profile
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
@VesselOfSpirit

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Vessel Of Spirit

@VesselOfSpirit

BAC, THIS.

weird.solar
Joined May 2014

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    1. Federico Vaggi‏ @F_Vaggi 6 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @bryan_caplan @davidmanheim

      The latest ICC publication did not meaningfully alter your calculus on this point? I think global warming is potentially the biggest challenge to our political system in general, but, to libertarian thought specifically.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Federico Vaggi‏ @F_Vaggi 6 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @F_Vaggi @bryan_caplan @davidmanheim

      It's almost as if a malevolent entity perfectly designed a trolley problem that attacks the weaknesses of our political system. It's an existential threat, that will dis proportionally impact poorer people in the third world, that requires collective action, etc...

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 6 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @F_Vaggi @bryan_caplan

      No, it's just that the more easily solvable challenges are less cognitively available, because they get solved quickly. But yes, it's a big deal, and millions will die, and then we'll fix it - and need to explain to our kids why we didn't act faster. So, "political dysfunction"?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Mike Strayer‏ @Mike_Strayer 6 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @davidmanheim @F_Vaggi @bryan_caplan

      At Effective Altruism Global, Oxford researcher John Halstead quantified the risks of global warming. He aligns with the IPCC on basically everything. Says it would be bad but very unlikely *existential* risk. He addresses the "millions will die" claim: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qmHh-cshTCMT8LX0Y5wSQm8FMBhaxhQ8OlOeRLkXIF0/mobilebasic# …

      4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @Mike_Strayer @davidmanheim

      this seems good, but i'm confused why the author first agrees with annan & hargreaves about fat tails being caused by bad priors, but then uses wagner & weitzman's fat tailed probabilities

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @Mike_Strayer @davidmanheim

      based on this http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.370.6347&rep=rep1&type=pdf … it seems like it would be really hard to justify the 3% chance of >6 deg sensitivity that wagner & weitzman assume

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @Mike_Strayer @davidmanheim

      the different lines of evidence may not be as independent as A&H say, but i'd guess even so conditioning on recent temperature record + paleoclimate + volcano data + models / feedback analysis constrains the pdf much more strongly

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @Mike_Strayer

      No in-sample data can constrain the possibility that there are feedback loops that trigger outside of the range being observed - IIRC, fundamental uncertainty about representing / including them drives most of the tail uncertainty found in some models.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 3 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @davidmanheim

      i'm trying to understand this and why A&H don't think seem to think it's important. are these longer term (centuries) feedbacks? are they part of ESS instead of ECS? W&W say "eventually" but 21st and maybe 22nd century seem a lot more relevant

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 3 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim

      apparently according to AR5 TCR is "extremely unlikely" (0-5%) above 3 deg

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 3 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim

      i haven't seen a calculation where they take all the major evidence into account but correct for the "out of sample" thing. suspect it's still hard to get that fat a tail

      9:26 AM - 3 Dec 2018
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