No point saying anything new on an election day.https://www.econlib.org/election-boilerplate/ …
based on this http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.370.6347&rep=rep1&type=pdf … it seems like it would be really hard to justify the 3% chance of >6 deg sensitivity that wagner & weitzman assume
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the different lines of evidence may not be as independent as A&H say, but i'd guess even so conditioning on recent temperature record + paleoclimate + volcano data + models / feedback analysis constrains the pdf much more strongly
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No in-sample data can constrain the possibility that there are feedback loops that trigger outside of the range being observed - IIRC, fundamental uncertainty about representing / including them drives most of the tail uncertainty found in some models.
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