what are you referring to when you say current projections are worse? afaik cmip5 models are widely seen as somewhat too sensitive
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
and this is a subset of them, so i have no idea what that means
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
the authors say this "could" happen which doesn't mean anything, though they do seem to be using a central estimate under their assumptions
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
this is based on rcp8.5 which i think is widely considered pessimistic even for a business as usual emissions scenario
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
rcp8.5 has us *now* at about 425ppm CO2-equivalent. (Staying under 500 through 2030.) This number, by NOAA, (which may account for short term warming differently, since it doesn't match) seems to say we're currently at close to 500, still accelerating - https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html …
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Replying to @davidmanheim
wikipedia says 410 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere …
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
i've heard real emissions have been in line with rcp8.5 recently but i think most of its pessimistic assumptions are about the future
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
The longer term assumptions dominate, but the current trend is very informative, especially without major inter-state cooperation - which I don't see in the near term.
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Replying to @davidmanheim
i'd say it's somewhat informative about future mitigation efforts but not about population growth or technological stagnation
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
Population growth is a relatively minor source of uncertainty through the end of the century. Tech is a huge wildcard, but banking on a breakthrough there, as opposed to hoping for one and investing, seems irresponsible given that specific future tech advances are unreliable.
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we should take pessimistic possibilities into account but not use or present them as typical possibilities
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