Do you see countries and individuals cutting back on emissions after the point where they are uninhabitable multiple months of the year? (See: Most of the Middle East.) My worry is that once we hit that point, they will give up and stop seriously trying to mitigate the impact.
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Replying to @davidmanheim
i think predicting anything multiple centuries ahead is silly. afaik though business as usual scenarios predict way less than 3-5 doublings
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
I think you're wrong about timeframe. Some parts of the middle east will be functionally uninhabitable for part of the year by the end of the century under almost all projections. https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/12/151215-global-warming-heat-wave-stress-death-climate/ … (And the current projections are less optimistic than those ones were.)
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Replying to @davidmanheim
never trust a journalist, always go to the actual science. the thing cited seems to be this http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e/pdf …
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
what are you referring to when you say current projections are worse? afaik cmip5 models are widely seen as somewhat too sensitive
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
and this is a subset of them, so i have no idea what that means
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
the authors say this "could" happen which doesn't mean anything, though they do seem to be using a central estimate under their assumptions
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
this is based on rcp8.5 which i think is widely considered pessimistic even for a business as usual emissions scenario
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
rcp8.5 has us *now* at about 425ppm CO2-equivalent. (Staying under 500 through 2030.) This number, by NOAA, (which may account for short term warming differently, since it doesn't match) seems to say we're currently at close to 500, still accelerating - https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html …
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Replying to @davidmanheim
wikipedia says 410 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere …
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oh sorry that's co2 not co2 equivalent
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
Right - the RCP forecasts are CO2-eq, which is just under the ballpark of the CO2-eq projections for the different RCPs - https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/All_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentration.png … . I'm confused about these numbers somewhere, and I strongly suspect Andy will know who to ask or have a link to explain.
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