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VesselOfSpirit's profile
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
Vessel Of Spirit
@VesselOfSpirit

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Vessel Of Spirit

@VesselOfSpirit

BAC, THIS.

weird.solar
Joined May 2014

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    1. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 28 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit

      I think you're wrong about timeframe. Some parts of the middle east will be functionally uninhabitable for part of the year by the end of the century under almost all projections. https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/12/151215-global-warming-heat-wave-stress-death-climate/ … (And the current projections are less optimistic than those ones were.)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 29 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @davidmanheim

      never trust a journalist, always go to the actual science. the thing cited seems to be this http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e/pdf …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 29 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim

      what are you referring to when you say current projections are worse? afaik cmip5 models are widely seen as somewhat too sensitive

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 29 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim

      and this is a subset of them, so i have no idea what that means

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 29 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim

      the authors say this "could" happen which doesn't mean anything, though they do seem to be using a central estimate under their assumptions

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 29 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim

      this is based on rcp8.5 which i think is widely considered pessimistic even for a business as usual emissions scenario

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 29 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit

      rcp8.5 has us *now* at about 425ppm CO2-equivalent. (Staying under 500 through 2030.) This number, by NOAA, (which may account for short term warming differently, since it doesn't match) seems to say we're currently at close to 500, still accelerating - https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 29 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @davidmanheim

      wikipedia says 410 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere …

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 29 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim

      i've heard real emissions have been in line with rcp8.5 recently but i think most of its pessimistic assumptions are about the future

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 29 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @VesselOfSpirit

      The longer term assumptions dominate, but the current trend is very informative, especially without major inter-state cooperation - which I don't see in the near term.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 29 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @davidmanheim

      i'd say it's somewhat informative about future mitigation efforts but not about population growth or technological stagnation

      11:14 AM - 29 Oct 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 29 Oct 2018
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          Replying to @VesselOfSpirit

          Population growth is a relatively minor source of uncertainty through the end of the century. Tech is a huge wildcard, but banking on a breakthrough there, as opposed to hoping for one and investing, seems irresponsible given that specific future tech advances are unreliable.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Vessel Of Spirit‏ @VesselOfSpirit 29 Oct 2018
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          Replying to @davidmanheim

          we should take pessimistic possibilities into account but not use or present them as typical possibilities

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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