never trust a journalist, always go to the actual science. the thing cited seems to be this http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e/pdf …
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
what are you referring to when you say current projections are worse? afaik cmip5 models are widely seen as somewhat too sensitive
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
and this is a subset of them, so i have no idea what that means
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
the authors say this "could" happen which doesn't mean anything, though they do seem to be using a central estimate under their assumptions
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
this is based on rcp8.5 which i think is widely considered pessimistic even for a business as usual emissions scenario
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
rcp8.5 has us *now* at about 425ppm CO2-equivalent. (Staying under 500 through 2030.) This number, by NOAA, (which may account for short term warming differently, since it doesn't match) seems to say we're currently at close to 500, still accelerating - https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html …
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Replying to @davidmanheim
wikipedia says 410 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere …
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
i've heard real emissions have been in line with rcp8.5 recently but i think most of its pessimistic assumptions are about the future
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
if you search rcp8.5 here https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z … it's clearly intended as worse than the median no mitigation scenario
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
a lot of popular science presents it as the median no mitigation scenario, because it's the worst of the four and they're confused
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i haven't seen any explicit defense of rcp8.5 as typical from any experts, though i haven't looked hard
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