Do you see countries and individuals cutting back on emissions after the point where they are uninhabitable multiple months of the year? (See: Most of the Middle East.) My worry is that once we hit that point, they will give up and stop seriously trying to mitigate the impact.
i've heard real emissions have been in line with rcp8.5 recently but i think most of its pessimistic assumptions are about the future
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if you search rcp8.5 here https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z … it's clearly intended as worse than the median no mitigation scenario
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a lot of popular science presents it as the median no mitigation scenario, because it's the worst of the four and they're confused
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The longer term assumptions dominate, but the current trend is very informative, especially without major inter-state cooperation - which I don't see in the near term.
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i'd say it's somewhat informative about future mitigation efforts but not about population growth or technological stagnation
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