i think predicting anything multiple centuries ahead is silly. afaik though business as usual scenarios predict way less than 3-5 doublings
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
I think you're wrong about timeframe. Some parts of the middle east will be functionally uninhabitable for part of the year by the end of the century under almost all projections. https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/12/151215-global-warming-heat-wave-stress-death-climate/ … (And the current projections are less optimistic than those ones were.)
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Replying to @davidmanheim
never trust a journalist, always go to the actual science. the thing cited seems to be this http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e/pdf …
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
what are you referring to when you say current projections are worse? afaik cmip5 models are widely seen as somewhat too sensitive
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
and this is a subset of them, so i have no idea what that means
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
the authors say this "could" happen which doesn't mean anything, though they do seem to be using a central estimate under their assumptions
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
this is based on rcp8.5 which i think is widely considered pessimistic even for a business as usual emissions scenario
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @davidmanheim
"These extreme wet bulb temperatures are concentrated in small parts of India, China, and the Amazon"
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit
I'd ask
@GulrezDoc more about the expected impacts, but my understanding was that the effects of the *expected-case* warming would either kill millions, or drive large-scale migrations away from those (very, very populous) areas within the next 3-4 decades.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @davidmanheim @gulrezdoc
i don't see any support for this in the NG article or the research it cites
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as far as i can tell scientists are generally careful not to talk about the "expected case" warming
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