what's the best rigorous case for the plausibility of runaway / extinction-level climate change?
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I think you're wrong about timeframe. Some parts of the middle east will be functionally uninhabitable for part of the year by the end of the century under almost all projections. https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/12/151215-global-warming-heat-wave-stress-death-climate/ … (And the current projections are less optimistic than those ones were.)
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never trust a journalist, always go to the actual science. the thing cited seems to be this http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e/pdf …
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i think the worst effects under these assumptions mostly come when it's way too late
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