1) re "intelligent thing risk" my new fave take is https://twitter.com/fire__exit/status/1011762984136445953 …
2) humans took millennia to appear and were shaped by long-term environments. we're motivated to make virtual humans but it's gonna be messy & I think Moore's Law is over
3) "study"?
"sound alarm"? 
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Replying to @simpolism @VesselOfSpirit
I think a major point I deeply disagree with is that I don't think Moore's Law will hold. A lot of AI-related fear seems to assume a continuous creep in computing power. How would AI-risk research change if we were forever stuck with the computing power of our current hardware?
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Replying to @simpolism @VesselOfSpirit
exponential hardware power growth probably only matters for hard takeoff
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Replying to @fire__exit @VesselOfSpirit
but hard takeoff is "the big x-risk", no?
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Replying to @simpolism @VesselOfSpirit
if we want humans around 50-100 yrs from now, but even much slower development is bad news for long time scales imo
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and this is assuming there's not an equivalent scaling mechanism for distributed computing (which can also improved dramatically)
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Replying to @fire__exit @VesselOfSpirit
I'm not even particularly convinced that "general intelligence" is something we're at all close to knowing how to build, regardless of whether it takes 20 years or 10 seconds to train
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Replying to @simpolism @fire__exit
i'm not particularly convinced either, but i'm not particularly convinced of the opposite, which seems enough to sound the alarm
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Replying to @VesselOfSpirit @fire__exit
i'm opposed to existential alarms on principle
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even then, i think AI alarm is more of a pascal's wager type alarm than a nuclear weapon type alarm
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pascal's wager is problematic because it involves very unlikely events. i'm arguing agi isn't very unlikely
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