A paper tiger event, here or abroad, against civilians or the US military, instead of bolstering Trump will seal his fate.
Bold strategy that the Trump campaign has adopted, recycling 2004 memes about "fighting terrorism in the Middle East" that Trump himself campaigned against in 2016. Let's see how it works out.
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I've also noticed that Trump's reelection strategy is eerily similar to Bush's 2004 campaign of "I'm keeping you safe" and minority pandering.
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Killing terrorists is broadly popular. Occupying Middle Eastern countries isn't. The impeachment case lost a lot of steam when we whacked al-Baghdadi. Trump will almost surely benefit if he keeps it to whacking Soleimani and not occupying Iran.
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