One: you get a distorted view if you start the timeline with Qasim Sulaymani's arrival in Suli on Oct. 15, midway thru events Abadi started.
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So my comments on this widely-shared Dexter Filkins piece, which is an important story, with reservations.https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/kurdish-dreams-of-independence-delayed-again# …
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While Abadi has faced immense pressure to return Kirkuk to fed control since Sept 25, it was his Oct 10 presser that first signaled action.
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I discussed the political context & Abadi's declaration that federal forces would be coming back in this thread:https://twitter.com/UticaRisk/status/920003941215109122 …
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I won't repeat the details, but suffice to note that Abadi appears to have just aimed to return control to pre-2014 lines, not 2003 lines.
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Which is what parl't had demanded: return to pre-2014 lines. This began night of Thursday-Fri.https://twitter.com/UticaRisk/status/921063560368742400 …
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Iran's role clearly had an impact, but hard to be sure what would have happened w/o the extra pressure. What is clear to me is that Abadi >
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> could not have remained in office w/o getting back Kirkuk, at least to 2014 lines. Filkins doesn't claim to know what happened in the >
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>Sulaymani-PUK meeting, & his main source appears to be "former senior American official who works in the region." FORMER. Who?
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Was Filkins' main source someone on the KDP's payroll, like Khalilzad?https://twitter.com/UticaRisk/status/921064669648912384 …
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That the Suli meeting took place is indisputed & it clearly had some impact; I'm not saying Filkins' story is nothing. But may be part spin.
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But I'll come back to that controversy. But first a point on the PUK's position. This is Prez Fuad Masum on Sept 28:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xO96cIl7zc0 …
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Key point: Masum gives up Kurdish state at this point, saying no reason for secession, ever, if Baghdad makes the right legislative deals.
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Masum's conditions for giving up secession permanently is Article 140 normalization, esp Kirkuk, & the right oil law.
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It is inconceivable that Masum gave up on secession like this without Talabani family agreement. He's their man.https://twitter.com/UticaRisk/status/921066674857631744 …
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Now this interview with Ala Talabani just last night. It is absolutely DYNAMITE. I mean, BOOM. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0LamYIq6M8 …
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Ala T says lots of amazing things here, but the main point is that she appears to give up on secession permanently. Not explicit, but close.
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So the point is: the PUK's political position on the core issue was the same on Sept 28 as it was on Oct 18. They didn't shift politically.
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So now let's return to Hajji Qasim & his mysterious, "shadowy" visit to Suli on Oct 15. Ala T confirms the meeting & says he made threats.
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Ala T doesn't give any more solid details than Filkins' anonymous source, but it is clear giving up PUK domination of Kirkuk was demand.
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Now back to Prez Masum for a moment; this is his speech on Oct 17, following the Kurdish collapse.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzve4hgCdOw …
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Main point from Masum is he praises the Peshmerga for securing Kirkuk in 2014, but frames it as having always been temporary. Ditto Ala T.
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Ala T also tows Abadi line, as Masum does, says PUK Peshmerga will now work jointly with federal forces in Kirkuk, other mixed areas.
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Otherwise, Ala spends the hour blasting Barzani for stealing oil, leading Kurds to disaster. Says Gov Najm al-Din Karim should face trial.
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On the Iran issue, Ala asks, "So why did KDP Pesh withdraw from Makhmur? Why did they withdraw from Sinjar, Ninawa Plains?"
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This is a problem for "it's all Iran." Iran played a role but Kurdish civilian & military leaders buckled everwhere.https://twitter.com/UticaRisk/status/921070389949644801 …
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Bottom line: Sulaymani jumped on a train that was already in motion. How much of the Kurdish collapse is due to Iran is impossible to say.
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More broadly, Arab Iraq is experiencing a surge in nationalist fervor right now. This is not entirely good, but it isn't all about Iran.
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It is a problem when an article's main source is an anonymous ex-official with financial interests. Likely KDP-tied.https://twitter.com/MoonofA/status/921070818360283137 …
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Barzani wasted a lot of money on lobbyists & media propaganda. I would have told him not to do it for free.https://twitter.com/AnankeGroup/status/921068041160491008 …
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Abadi is in a very strong position right now, Maliki sidelined. He'll have to handle this with great care.https://twitter.com/Observer46664/status/921072594346004480 …
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