If you’ve made a move in recent years — not just across town, but to a new metro area — we’d like to hear about it.
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The Is looking to learn about American migration. Tell us about your relocations over the last decade (this is real Shefali content ya'll)
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An updating average of Americans' favorability of former President Trump:
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We’d also like to understand the more personal choices that motivate big moves: Did you move for higher pay, or cheaper housing, or closer family ties?
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This case seems particularly unlikely to hurt Mr. Trump’s base of support, but it might just be the beginning.
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We’ve learned a thing or two from previous expeditions by Donald J. Trump into rough, faraway waters.
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Light is a big part of why it’s so hard to convert many office buildings into housing.
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The polling trend seems to have a few key ingredients.
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Finally got around to reading this superb / piece breaking down why modern office buildings are hard to convert to apartments, but century-old Art Deco buildings convert more easily:
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If attacking Mr. Trump carries risks, so does allowing him to punch without a vigorous defense or a counterpunch.
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Torrential rain and snow have drenched California in recent weeks, adding to an already wet winter season. The precipitation has begun to ease the state’s long-term drought, the driest three-year stretch on record.
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From our reporting on office-to-residential conversions, and I had some leftover things we wanted to say about... Vermeer: nytimes.com/2023/03/17/ups
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At this stage, DeSantis and his allies don’t seem to think they can criticize Trump.
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It takes only a quick look at real estate listings to see the hold that sunlight has over us.
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This apartment conversion interactive by & for the is absolutely phenomenal. (Not at all surprising, knowing their work!)
Here is a gift link, in case you aren't a subscriber:
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A strategic way to separate yourself from the pack in your pool: Look at the difference between picks by fans and forecasting models.
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A strategic way to separate yourself from the pack in your pool: Look at the difference between picks by fans and forecasting models.
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Aggregated NCAA mega-tables for you in today's Upshot, including a nice one that compares public and expert brackets
nytimes.com/interactive/20
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Picking a perfect NCAA tournament bracket is all but impossible.
But there are ways to improve your chances, especially in a large pool. One avenue is examining the difference between the public’s picks and those of forecasting models.
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If you're interested in a strategic contrarian approach ...
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Why do minutes sometimes feel endless and other times, hours seem to race by? A new study offers insite into the science behind our perception of time
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Vallas calls Chicago the "murder capital," and contrasts the rate with New York and Los Angeles
CONTEXT: nytimes.com/2021/06/16/ups
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There are lots of stories like this one from a reader. It’s these small adjustments to work schedules that could make a big difference: nytimes.com/2023/03/12/ups
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Always be willing to rethink your beliefs based on evidence. COVID lab leak is one example. Fox's election call in Arizona is another.
Here, presents evidence that Fox's call was based on misjudgments of data. Erroneously confident, but lucky.
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My best analogy is to a gambler who bets 100% of his bankroll on red while the roulette wheel is still spinning and then claims it was the result of his highly proprietary model when the ball takes a last-second bounce into red.
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My best analogy for the FoxNews/Arizona call is that it's like a football coach who goes against the analytics and makes an overly aggressive call on 4th down and it all works out anyway. A decision can be ex ante wrong while still working out. twitter.com/Redistrict/sta…
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There was not much of a factual basis to make a call on Arizona so early.
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I wrote this in 2015. Maybe an unexpected silver lining of the pandemic lockdowns is that in small ways, some of these barriers are beginning to break down.
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A father of two in Ohio who now works from home told me: “For the longest time, it was: The male is the provider. I was that guy. But now I’m not ashamed to say this is who I am in my life. That’s what Covid did.”
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“The expectations of father involvement have increased in the last generation, across all social classes but especially for those most marginalized."
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This is entirely right and I have no idea why people are so angry at this. Fox's own internal modeling was extremely off and it nearly caused them to make a catastrophically wrong call.
This didn't ultimately matter in 2020. But the wrong process could be horrid in 2024.
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Why Fox’s Call on Arizona, Which Was Right, Was Still Wrong nytimes.com/2023/03/13/ups
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Given the chance, a lot of dads will dad more, and create sweet photos like this one in the meantime
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Not the main point of this story, which is good and you should read, but interesting how "misspeak" in PR-speak has come to connote roughly the opposite of its literal meaning (Mishkin explained himself quite clearly, but his assumptions were very wrong!)
nytimes.com/2023/03/13/ups
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"A lucky and dangerous guess."
Fox News' call of Arizona in the 2020 election turned out "right." explains why it was premature and incorrect anyway.
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Fox News lacked a good basis to call Arizona for Biden when they did. Contemporaneous comments make clear their analysts misunderstood the outstanding vote and expected a *wide* Biden win. Just because a call pans out doesn’t mean it was justified ex-ante.
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This reporting makes me happy for a mini-generation of dads who got a reset during the pandemic to spend more time with their kids. I have many of these great guys among my family & friends (and fellow preschool parents), & their kids are super lucky
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