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Vrijeme pridruživanja: listopad 2008.

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  1. “Everyone’s talking about suburban female voters because they’re deciding elections.” 

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    There will be a minor correction to the last batch of results and we will be pushing an update momentarily.

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    The Senate has rejected both impeachment charges and acquitted the president. See how every senator voted.

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    I hope there are good quality control checks at the networks, because if they had been real these results would have triggered projection calls at the networks (needle went to >99 buttigieg)

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    Patrick you'll note is up to 21 SDE, and that covers most of Buttigieg's expanded lead in my initial tweet (if you remember it)

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    I suspect they'll fix this pretty quickly. And to be fair, I bet they're getting pretty tired at this point over there.

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    it seems the new results have entered many likely Sanders results in Polk County as Deval Patrick or Steyer.

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    I have some questions about the reliability of these results.

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    Buttigieg now with an 86 percent chance to win the most SDEs, according to our forecast model

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  10. We have more data! But not much. We're now at 75% of all results, from 71%. The needle shows Buttigieg moving up to 86% percent to win SDEs, and Sanders down a bit (60%) on winning final alignment.

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    prije 19 sati

    While we’re on the topic, a reminder that the tight labor market has indeed been responsible for most of the wage acceleration at the bottom, but that began in 2014 or so And state & local minimum wage hikes explain most of the low wage *over*performance

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    Iowa Caucus turnout was similar to turnout for their midterm primary in 2018 (176K Gov votes), when there were few competitive races: Many voters show up regularly to vote but don't make it to caucus; that hurt Biden:

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    prije 5 sati

    A key question after a flawed report: Can people with coronavirus -- but without symptoms -- pass it on? 

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    If we change our likely voter screen to the same as the Selzer poll (Almost certain, very likely as 100%; all else as zero), our result is Bernie 24.7, Buttigieg 18.9, Warren 15.2, Biden 16, which brings our average error down to 1.4, the exact same as the Selzer poll

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    The 598 People, Places and Things Donald Trump Has Insulted on Twitter: A Complete List via

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    We're at one of those points when nobody seems like a particularly good bet to win the Democratic nomination and yet someone has to.

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  17. In case you missed the update last night, we have Buttigieg at 81% probability of winning on SDEs (57% on pledged delegates). And Sanders is at 94% and 64% on first and final alignment.

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    Pretty happy with our result, especially given that we're farther before the election than the others and that the demographics seem dead-on in the entrance poll. And I'll give ourselves a bonus prize for being the only firm to have Sanders in 1st and Buttigieg in 2nd

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    Selzer appears to have nailed it again, and that's without even crediting her with nailing the multi-day delay in reporting a result

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    prije 19 sati
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