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Prikvačeni tweet
The rally in stocks priced in higher earnings growth. It’s finally happening. Since stocks have already priced this improvement in, you can see in real time why earnings growth doesn’t have a high R-squared with returns. (h/t)
@Not_Jim_Cramer Article: https://upfina.com/eps-growth-estimates-stock-returns/ …pic.twitter.com/q3e27YMkH4
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Inequality is an issue in the 2020 election & Bernie Sanders has risen in the polls because the bottom 90% has a negative savings rate & the bottom 99% has sold over $1 trillion in equities since 1990. The bottom 50% has just 4% of their money in stocks.https://upfina.com/everything-seems-healthy-on-the-surface/ …
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The homeownership rate increased from 64.8% to 65.1% in Q4 2019 which is the highest since Q4 2013. Those making below the median income drove the rate higher. The rate for those under 35 years old rose from 36.5% to 37.6%. (h/t)
@HousingRalph Article: https://upfina.com/weakest-economy-in-4-years/ …pic.twitter.com/4y4BDHlXYY
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The trade deficit is falling, but the budget deficit is rising due to increased spending. The budget deficit in 2019 was $1.02 trillion which increased 17.1% from 2018 (which had 28.2% growth itself). (h/t)
@teasri Article: https://upfina.com/weakest-economy-in-4-years/ …pic.twitter.com/MvicPxldOn
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Net trade helped Q4 GDP growth by 1.5 points. Imports helped growth 1.3 points, while inventory investment hurt growth by 1.1 points. Government spending helped growth by 0.5. (h/t)
@GregDaco Article: https://upfina.com/weakest-economy-in-4-years/ …pic.twitter.com/R0ncBesWFC
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Real consumer spending growth fell from 3.2% to 1.8% in Q4. Unlike the last 2 quarters, less than 40% of Q4 GDP growth was driven by consumption. Consumption added 1.2 points to GDP growth (spending on services added 0.9). (h/t)
@GregDaco Article: https://upfina.com/weakest-economy-in-4-years/ …pic.twitter.com/IcizhvJuHi
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You may have noticed the sector names on the previous table by
@Not_Jim_Cramer weren't logical. He fixed the error and updated the information with the latest data.pic.twitter.com/3UIFsCk38A
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GDP growth of 2.1% sounds okay, but real final sales to domestic purchasers growth which excludes trade, inventory investment, and government spending was the lowest in 4 years.https://upfina.com/weakest-economy-in-4-years/ …
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The pending home sales index fell 4.9% monthly in December. This was the largest decline since May 2010 & the largest negative surprise in 5 years. The MBA purchase applications index was up 5% weekly & 17% yearly. (h/t)
@Not_Jim_Cramer Full Article: https://upfina.com/the-most-valuable-chart-of-the-year/ …pic.twitter.com/Q14lfQ82tM
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Home price growth is bottoming. In November, yearly non-seasonally adjusted price growth increased from 2.2% to 2.6% in the 20 city Case Shiller index. Yearly national price growth rose from 3.3% to 3.5%. (h/t)
@charliebilello Article: https://upfina.com/the-most-valuable-chart-of-the-year/ …pic.twitter.com/jOzSOVsKch
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Investors expect a 1.2% move in the S&P 500 related to the Iowa caucus. Bernie Sanders is ahead in Iowa by an average of 3.6%. His odds to win the first 3 states: Iowa: 63% New Hampshire: 81% Nevada: 66% (h/t)
@danny_kirsch Full Article: https://upfina.com/the-most-valuable-chart-of-the-year/ …pic.twitter.com/QhSIE8ElYU
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The table below by
@Not_Jim_Cramer is the most valuable FinTwit content of 2020. It ranks economic data across 5 factors: timeliness, revisions, volatility, surprise, & correlation. The red reports are soft data & the black ones are hard data. Article: https://upfina.com/the-most-valuable-chart-of-the-year/ …pic.twitter.com/I8xhXx6mQX
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@Not_Jim_Cramer shared a very important chart. Stocks should face volatility if Bernie wins the first 3 states like it looks like he will. Home price growth has bottomed. The pending home sales index missed estimates widely & fell sharply.https://upfina.com/the-most-valuable-chart-of-the-year/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Durable goods orders fell 3.7%. That was up from -4.8%, but the 2 year growth stack fell 0.6%. Non-defense capital goods orders growth ex-aircraft was 1% which rose from 0.3%. The 2 year growth stack fell from 6.4% to 2.9%. (h/t)
@jpicerno Article: https://upfina.com/consumer-free-cash-flow-is-high/ …pic.twitter.com/C6idj4sFO7
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The % of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” rose from 46.5% to 49% and those saying jobs are “hard to get” fell from 13% to 11.6%. The net difference rose to 37.4%. (h/t)
@acinko@lisaabramowicz1 Article: https://upfina.com/consumer-free-cash-flow-is-high/ …pic.twitter.com/jFoncGLqou
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Consumer free cash flow is calculated by subtracting the amount of money consumers have after taxes, food, & energy by their cost of debt servicing. Consumer free cash flow is very strong as shown in the bottom chart below. (h/t)
@MichaelKantro Article: https://upfina.com/consumer-free-cash-flow-is-high/ …pic.twitter.com/gTn8ViX319
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Consumers have high free cash flow according to
@csm_research's calculation. The consumer confidence report agrees with that assessment. It’s no surprise durable goods orders were weak in December since business investment fell in Q4.https://upfina.com/consumer-free-cash-flow-is-high/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
All 5 of the January regional Fed manufacturing reports improved. The average of the regional Fed indexes implies the ISM manufacturing PMI will rise to 56. (h/t)
@jpicerno &@AnetaBMarkowska Read More: https://upfina.com/consumer-free-cash-flow-is-high/ …pic.twitter.com/yCGDBYXmER
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Yield caps on short to intermediate term securities are being discussed to deal with the next recession. The Fed capped short rates from 1942 to 1947 & it capped long rates from 1942 to 1951. (h/t)
@LizAnnSonders Full Article: https://upfina.com/review-of-primary-race-yield-capping/ …pic.twitter.com/STTpoI0QSz
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The PredictIt betting market shows Sanders & Biden have a 41% & 37% chance of being the Dem nominee. The table shows what this means for tax rates. Taxes will go up a lot especially for the rich if Sanders is elected. (h/t)
@WSJ &@csm_research Article: https://upfina.com/review-of-primary-race-yield-capping/ …pic.twitter.com/ZCHD8AfRnZ
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New home sales in December were 694K which is the lowest since July. However, the quarterly average was 699K which is a cycle high. In the South, sales fell from 410K to 347K which is the lowest since October 2018. (h/t)
@bespokeinvest Full Article: https://upfina.com/review-of-primary-race-yield-capping/ …pic.twitter.com/GL2OBwaG9f
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