Special good morning to for making the least popular but most important argument about fleet electrification: EV-only extremism makes for good propaganda, but it's not a pragmatic approach to the problem.
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We've been on a ten-year sugar high from Elon Musk's alluring promise that electric cars are a "solved problem." And for the wealthy elite who buy Teslas, the "throw more batteries at it" approach really does work.
It only fails at the system level.
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For the next couple of years, the seemingly infinite promise of these big-battery EVs is going to turn into a premium segment knife fight. There are only so many buyers for the $70k average transaction price of these EVs, and that number ain't growing even as OEMs multiply.
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Tesla didn't just make a popular product back in 2012, it did so under the assumption it could scale forever, and Tesla floated past every problem on a rising tide of zero interest rate cash. Now it's time to get real, and the picture looks very, very different.
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So yes, Tesla created a popular premium vehicle segment. What it hasn't proven, despite its "secret master plan," is that EVs are a scalable solution. If batteries are the bottleneck, we need to follow Toyota's logic here and approach the problem with pragmatism, not propaganda.
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The problem is that Tesla has erased distinctions between perception and reality, as far as Wall Street is concerned. Propaganda has been enough for investors, and it still is based on Tesla's valuation. Getting real going forward requires re-unifying theory and practice.
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Curious if has time for a response... EV-only "extremism" as a term sounds very bad.
#alwaysbecharging
⚡️⚡️
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PHEVs are the real solution (it would cost nothing to add a little charger to the "traditional hybrid"), unfortunately they are too good for this world 😥.
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It’s all about scarcity/quantity and how we make the most of limited resources. We need a 12-fold increase in global lithium production EVERY YEAR to supply the projected EV goals. That’s a lot of gigantic holes in the ground that don’t exist today: spglobal.com/mobility/en/re
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I look at the need for hybrids as a bridge to also maintain affordability & maintain small car options, as smaller vehicles are being dropped in favour of large EVs that can do 300 miles (though they rarely will). How much more wasteful is the Hummer or Cybertruck based on size?
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