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TroyTeslike's profile
Troy Teslike
Troy Teslike
Troy Teslike
@TroyTeslike

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Troy Teslike

@TroyTeslike

Tesla Delivery Estimates: Data-driven & free Error Rate: • Q2 2020: -1.4% • Q3 2020: +2.5% • Q4 2020: +1.7% • Q1 2021: -10.7%

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Joined June 2018

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    1. Troy Teslike‏ @TroyTeslike 11 Jan 2020

      Hi everybody. Based on historical data and seasonal trends (including the adjustment for made in China Model 3s), my current Tesla delivery estimate for Q1 2020 is 97,000 units. I will update my estimate on 11 February when we have the January numbers for Europe.pic.twitter.com/AZNcaPF3Ne

      49 replies 30 retweets 256 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Troy Teslike‏ @TroyTeslike 11 Feb 2020

      Hi everybody. I have looked at shipping data and data from my Model 3 survey and my Tesla delivery estimate for Q1 2020 is still 97,000 units. Next update will be on 11 March.pic.twitter.com/EpFMOwU7b4

      19 replies 8 retweets 75 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Troy Teslike‏ @TroyTeslike 10 Mar 2020

      Hi everybody. My Tesla delivery estimate for Q1 2020 is now 98,500 units. This is based on shipping data, data from my Model 3 & Model Y surveys and also includes adjustments for production increase in Shanghai & Model Y deliveries in the US. The final update will be on 31 March.pic.twitter.com/Jc6kc3vJGc

      17 replies 17 retweets 96 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Troy Teslike‏ @TroyTeslike 21 Mar 2020

      Because of the negative effect of the pandemic, my Tesla delivery est for Q1 2020 is now 90K. Final update on 31 Mar. Stay safe, #StayAtHome Data sources: •NA: my Model 3/Y surveys •China: public data •EU: Jan&Feb sales + daily data for NL+NO+SP •Rest of APAC: shipping datapic.twitter.com/RiS89eIfAQ

      16 replies 5 retweets 66 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Troy Teslike‏ @TroyTeslike 31 Mar 2020

      Hi everybody. My final Tesla delivery estimate for Q1 2020 is 83,100 units. First table shows how my est changed over time. Second table shows monthly and regional breakdown for 83,100. My production est is 86,500 Fremont + 15,900 Shanghai= 102,400 units. Be safe & #StayAtHomepic.twitter.com/sZvGKrXlCc

      25 replies 20 retweets 131 likes
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    6. Bonaire‏ @BonaireVolt 31 Mar 2020
      Replying to @TroyTeslike

      You've been all over the map and are now right near my 84,000 Q1 number that I have had since January.

      3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    7. Troy Teslike‏ @TroyTeslike 31 Mar 2020
      Replying to @BonaireVolt

      Between 23-31 March, Tesla was supposed to deliver over 20K units in North America alone. Because it's such a high volume in such a short time, the lockdowns had a big effect on deliveries.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    8. TC, Master of Chart‏ @TESLAcharts 31 Mar 2020
      Replying to @TroyTeslike @BonaireVolt

      So April should be amazing right? And what if it isn’t....

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    9. COViD420‏ @Surfstrong1 31 Mar 2020
      Replying to @TESLAcharts @TroyTeslike @BonaireVolt

      All those late March deliveries that were “supposed” to happen just mysteriously vaporized.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Troy Teslike‏ @TroyTeslike 31 Mar 2020
      Replying to @Surfstrong1 @TESLAcharts @BonaireVolt

      I think the impact of the coronavirus was 98,500-83,100= 15,400 fewer deliveries than expected. Some of those buyers have cancelled and some have postponed their order. If we assume 50/50, that would be 7,700 cancellations and 7,700 postponed deliveries. Not a big number.

      6:55 PM - 31 Mar 2020
      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. COViD420‏ @Surfstrong1 31 Mar 2020
          Replying to @TroyTeslike @TESLAcharts @BonaireVolt

          Maybe but I think it’s bigger than that. And I think Q1 is going to be there best quarter this year.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. ( 🪑x5) +  🐍& 🎷 +  🔋 = $700 + 💻 =  💣$2000 💣‏ @carlodb1978 1 Apr 2020
          Replying to @TroyTeslike @Surfstrong1 and

          Troy tks how do u assume the big drop in US?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. ( 🪑x5) +  🐍& 🎷 +  🔋 = $700 + 💻 =  💣$2000 💣‏ @carlodb1978 2 Apr 2020
          Replying to @TroyTeslike @Surfstrong1 and

          Did u get some extra data to validate these numbers?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Troy Teslike‏ @TroyTeslike 2 Apr 2020
          Replying to @carlodb1978 @Surfstrong1 and

          I use lots of data sources to calculate my estimates. 98,500-83,100= 15,400 is mostly based on data & I think it's fairly accurate. The 50/50 split is based on a small sample set of 15-20 buyers from my Tesla order tracker. So, mostly a guess.pic.twitter.com/wEVXieYxaW

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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