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Hi everybody. My current Tesla delivery estimate for Q4 is 104K. I'll update this on 11 Nov. I expect an increase in US, Canada and EU excl UK based on consistent historical trends for last Q. I expect a decrease in UK and Rest of APAC because most Model 3 backlog cleared in Q3.pic.twitter.com/QnooO7a6eV
Hi everybody. Based on the latest data (New York registrations, Netherlands+Norway+Spain registrations & worldwide shipping data) my Tesla delivery estimate for Q4 2019 is still 104,000 which looks now more likely than it did a month ago. I'll update again on 11 & 31 Dec.pic.twitter.com/nVNgRT95Eb
Hi everybody. My new Tesla delivery estimate for Q4 2019 is 106,000. The big unknown this quarter is USA deliveries. Model 3 demand is stronger than ever and there is a big waiting list. I think they will be production limited in Q4. I'll update my estimate again on 31 Dec.pic.twitter.com/f8uoKPQeCI
Hi everybody. My Q4 2019 Tesla delivery estimate is now 108,000. The latest data shows that China and EU deliveries are higher than I estimated on 11 Dec. I will update again on 31 Dec.pic.twitter.com/8Xm3dReJGz
Hi, everybody. My final Tesla delivery estimate for Q4 2019 is 108,400 units. The table shows how my est changed over time Data sources I've used: •EU https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-europe-registration-stats.61651/ … & https://eu-evs.com/ •NA https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-l47Zmw4zL1D331PtghTQCAHYh1vC6P1wYkjZpjRD1o/edit#gid=0 … •APAC https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI/edit#gid=0 … •Historical datapic.twitter.com/h8NyQep3ym
Hi everybody. The actual Q4 delivery number is 112,000 units. My estimate was 108,400. I underestimated by 3,600 units. I'm happy with the accuracy. I will tweet my first delivery estimate for Q1 2020 on 11 January.pic.twitter.com/4Gwcb1nN68
May be 5k China made as a wild card?
My 8K estimate includes Model 3 made in China. According to this article https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_4530996 … the glass supplier for Model 3 has built a new factory in Shanghai and they expect to deliver 3000 units in Q4. Therefore 2-3K made in China Model 3 del seem more likely at this point
12k seems way too much for GF3, 3k would already be a good number! (see glass supplier estimate of 3k deliveries)
So ~360,000 on the nose?
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