Troy Teslike

@TroyTeslike

Tesla Delivery Estimates: Data-driven, accurate, free. Early access on Patreon Error Rate: • Q1 2020: -6.1% • Q2 2020: -1.4% • Q3 2020: +2.5% • Q4 2020: +1.7%

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Inscrit en juin 2018

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  1. il y a 5 heures

    Hi everybody. This is update #5. My Tesla delivery est is now, • 177K for Q1 (it was the same), • 851K for 2021 (was 857K) The yearly number dropped by 6K because there are no Model S/X Refresh deliveries to right-hand-drive countries this year but that's still 70% YOY growth

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  2. 22 févr.

    I don't know why Tesla killed the Model Y SR version but I can think of two possible reasons: • It'll be relaunched with LFP cells • Too many people ordered it instead of LR/P versions which reduced the overall margin too much so they decided they've enough SR orders for Q1

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  3. 20 févr.

    Hi everybody. This is update #4 for Tesla deliveries in Q1. My est is now, • 177K for Q1 (was 182K) • 857K for 2021 << 71% YOY (was 880K) Reasons for drop: • No Model S/X exports in Q1/Q2 • Slow Model Y ramp up in Shanghai & Fremont • No Model 3 LR AWD in China until Q2

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  4. 14 févr.

    This is update #3 for Tesla deliveries in Q1 2021 that I calculated on 7 Feb. I estimate, • 182K for Q1 • 880K for 2021 I posted update #4 on Patreon yesterday . It will be on Twitter on 20 Feb. There is a 7-day lag except for the final update on 31 Mar

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  5. 13 févr.

    I've heard two rumors: • Model 2 will have more than one version but the first one will be the hatchback version • The plan was to start production of next-gen Model Y in 2021, Model 3 in 2022, and Model 2 in 2023 but Tesla might skip Model 3 and go directly to Model 2 in 2022

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  6. 10 févr.
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  7. 8 févr.

    Hi everybody. CPCA says Tesla sold 15,484 cars in China in January. This is perfectly normal. October was 12,143 because of 7K exports to Europe There were exports in January too because Shanghai took over shipments to right-hand-drive countries which is typically 8K per quarter

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  8. 5 févr.

    I think the journalists who toured the factory misunderstood what Tesla said. Tesla most likely said the capacity of the Giga-Shanghai Model Y production line is 250K/year (about 700/day) and they currently have a single shift. That doesn't mean the current rate is 700/day.

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  9. 31 janv.

    Hi everybody. This is update #2 for Q1. My Tesla delivery estimate is now, • 184,000 for Q1 • 871,000 for 2021 • 1,344,000 for 2022 Detailed tables for 2020, 2021 & 2022: My comments: 2021: 2022:

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  10. 30 janv.

    I have listened to the 27 January Tesla conference call again and I've updated the list here: Tesla Upcoming Events:

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  11. 27 janv.

    This is the chart I like most in Tesla's update letter because • it shows market share within passenger car sales, not EVs, and, • this puts Tesla now on the radar. This is the chart we are going to watch over the next few years. It's from page 8 here:

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  12. 27 janv.

    Tesla has released their numbers. See the PDF here: Revenue was $10.744 billion. I was off by 0.5%. Gary and Rob were even closer. Congrats.

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  13. 27 janv.

    I have two interesting charts for you. The first one shows the average sale price of Model 3 in the US. The second one shows the ASP of Model 3+Y. This is a weighted average based on how many Model 3 vs Y were sold in the US (good idea), not based on 3 vs Y sample size (bad idea)

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  14. 26 janv.

    Hi, everybody. My Tesla revenue estimate for Q4 2020 is $10.689 billion. Apparently, the consensus is $10.473 billion. In the last quarter, I was lucky and my error rate here was 0.1% but I'd be happy with less than 5% error considering all the unknowns.

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  15. 26 janv.

    I like this question. It's currently number #7. Hopefully, it will make it to the top 5.

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  16. 25 janv.

    Some people are asking why I'm estimating only 800K deliveries in 2021. I'm not. See 800K is my estimate for Tesla's guidance (their official target) which they will announce in 2 days. It sets the floor for 2021 deliveries This was the guidance for 2020:

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  17. 25 janv.

    Hi everybody. My estimate for Tesla's guidance for 2021 is 800,000 because that's what they can comfortably exceed without the Berlin and Texas factories. Judging by Elon's comments here about de-risking 2021, I think they approach it the same way.

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  18. 25 janv.

    What do you think Tesla's guidance will be for 2021 deliveries?

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  19. 24 janv.

    I should add that cannibalization wasn't the only factor. There was $1875 federal tax credits in H2 2019 & no pandemic. If we remove those factors, US sales with only Model 3 vs 3+Y would look like this. In other words, adding Y to 3 doesn't increase sales by 2x but rather 1.8x

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  20. 24 janv.

    Here is how Model Y cannibalization on Model 3 looks like: For every 100 Model 3 LR/P Tesla was selling in the US in the second half of 2019, they sold 65 Model 3 LR/P and 100 Model Y LR/P in the second half of 2020. In other words, Model 3 + Y= 1.65 * Model 3

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