Job guarantee will get the votes, but should be designed to fail into a UBI. Not designed *for* failure, but designed to turn into a UBI if it fails (or *where* and *when* it fails, which may be spatially and temporally limited).
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I don't know. The EU didn't have much success with a similar transition plan for the Euro...
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True, institutions don't like to give up. I'm just worried that the "electable" option will be a JG, and that will become sclerotic very fast. UBI seems more flexible, humane. Especially when posed as a sort of "societal dividend."
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Under current conditions, we will get UBI when so many people become jobless that the rich find it preferable to revolution.
Not saying current conditions will maintain, but...
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In the US, there's a pretty strong anti-welfare, pro-work sentiment that spans a lot of the political spectrum, and I think some kind of comprise will be made with them in the form of a JG. Just my sense, could certainly be wrong.