See also: global market share, speed of innovation, local resource consumption, etc.
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I think innovation has long since stopped being the domain of the US.
Unless you mean in ways to make rich people's lives that bit more convenient and hipsterish.
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I think we're talking past each other. The country best placed to fund green tech, or defund fossil fuels, or change the state of the oil game, is the US.
That will remain true for the entire window of opportunity to do anything except pray, unless the models are very wrong.
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Possibly, but it'd require wholesale systemic change for them to use that potential in a way that isn't imperialistic & neo-colonialist & counter-productive.
Certainly, their 800+ military bases should be retooled for disaster prep & relief, then handed over to host states.
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I think the difficulty of systemic change is oversold as often as it's undersold.
Realistically, it's sufficient for the current US system to collapse, provided the right people manage to seize the momentum.
But the US is such a crazy place, it's hard to predict how it'd go.
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Yep. Predicting anything post-transition is a mugs game.
As pointless as predicting timing.
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The other thing is, when you look at places like the ex-Soviet bloc, these countries all got neoliberalized into new types of shitholes, in spite of their revolutions.
But the US was the primary agent of that neoliberalization. What happens if it collapses? Who subverts *that*?
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I just can't see it.
Eastern Europe had the EU (and by extension, the US) right next door to it as a natural successor.
China has no equivalent adjacency to the US.
Could happen obliquely I guess, through "aid", and a milder form of neocolonialism?
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Africa goes to China to gain leverage against the US and EU.
It's a devil's bargain forced upon those countries by the western powers, not a neutral situation.