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Trinhnomics's profile
Trinh Nguyen
Trinh Nguyen
Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics

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Trinh Nguyen

@Trinhnomics

Senior economist for emerging Asia @natixis; Nonresident scholar for the Asia Program @carnegieEndow; Views are all mine and you are free to use/like/rt.

Hong Kong
linkedin.com/in/trinh-nguye…
Joined March 2013

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    1. Trinh Nguyen‏ @Trinhnomics 12h12 hours ago
      • Report Tweet

      Good morning Hong Kong! Landed from LAX & everyone has a mask & the streets are quiet. Mainland China markets open & commodity futures hit the downside limit. CNH weakens more than CNY. The virus is infecting social activities, from tourism to retail & even industrial activities

      10 replies 46 retweets 248 likes
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    2. Trinh Nguyen‏ @Trinhnomics 11h11 hours ago
      • Report Tweet

      The number 8 is a lucky number in China & markets are down about today. Note that this is a lot of pent-up selling demand due to the holidays. The uncertainty is also adding to this knee-jerk reaction. Q: How often does SHCOMP fall >8% since 2001? Answer: 4 times excl today.

      6 replies 11 retweets 54 likes
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    3. Trinh Nguyen‏ @Trinhnomics 11h11 hours ago
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      Dates that SHCOMP fall >-8%: 27 Feb 2007 by -8.8% 4 June 2007 by -8.3% 27 July 2015 by -8.5% 24 August 2015 by -8.5% & today 3 Feb 2020 by -8.4%

      3 replies 23 retweets 60 likes
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    4. Trinh Nguyen‏ @Trinhnomics 11h11 hours ago
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      What happens the next day for when markets fell >8%? In 2007, it rell each time but by much less. In 2015, fell the next day & so buying the dip was catching the falling knife. What happens tom? Stocks are re-pricing expectations of earnings & question is whether it overshoots.

      4 replies 12 retweets 55 likes
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    5. Trinh Nguyen‏ @Trinhnomics 10h10 hours ago
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      Here are the key questions for whether this is a short-term (Q1) or a bit longer lasting: a) When'll the infection peak, as in we need to see a containment soon for social activities to resume; b) Effectiveness of support from the gov' to counter the decline of earnings impact;

      3 replies 2 retweets 31 likes
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    6. Trinh Nguyen‏ @Trinhnomics 10h10 hours ago
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      While u mull on this (not a virus expert so have no idea when contagion'll peak; China bulls tend to estimate this like next wk & bears'll estimate longer lasting cycle), something to think also: Sectors that can stomach this best & worst in China as earnings fall.

      2 replies 1 retweet 29 likes
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      Trinh Nguyen‏ @Trinhnomics 5h5 hours ago
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      Here is a paper forecasting that it will peak in Wuhan on 20 April 2020 & other cities 1-2 wks later. So we're looking at Q2 not just Q1 if this were true. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext …pic.twitter.com/AxDvExV0Xy

      12:14 AM - 3 Feb 2020
      • 31 Retweets
      • 56 Likes
      • Hursh Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 😷J. Fong Belinda 나른한오후 Jack Hall અક્ષય Johann van der Walt pash
      2 replies 31 retweets 56 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Trinh Nguyen‏ @Trinhnomics 5h5 hours ago
          • Report Tweet

          There you go, markets closed roughly down -8% for Chinapic.twitter.com/5omukzVTku

          3 replies 16 retweets 38 likes
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        3. Trinh Nguyen‏ @Trinhnomics 5h5 hours ago
          • Report Tweet

          Btw, Hong Kong economy shrank -1.2% in 2019 & the bad news is that 2020 won't be better given this virus that basically shuts most activities down in Q1 2020 & maybe even Q2 2020... 😬😬😬

          4 replies 4 retweets 30 likes
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        4. End of conversation
        1. daruma 🇰🇷 🇺🇸 🇯🇵‏ @F4oBBzu4Zt0whV6 4h4 hours ago
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @Trinhnomics

          Cảm ơn 🙏🤗🤗

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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