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What happens the next day for when markets fell >8%? In 2007, it rell each time but by much less. In 2015, fell the next day & so buying the dip was catching the falling knife. What happens tom? Stocks are re-pricing expectations of earnings & question is whether it overshoots.
Here are the key questions for whether this is a short-term (Q1) or a bit longer lasting: a) When'll the infection peak, as in we need to see a containment soon for social activities to resume; b) Effectiveness of support from the gov' to counter the decline of earnings impact;
While u mull on this (not a virus expert so have no idea when contagion'll peak; China bulls tend to estimate this like next wk & bears'll estimate longer lasting cycle), something to think also: Sectors that can stomach this best & worst in China as earnings fall.
Here is a paper forecasting that it will peak in Wuhan on 20 April 2020 & other cities 1-2 wks later. So we're looking at Q2 not just Q1 if this were true. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext …pic.twitter.com/AxDvExV0Xy
Btw, Hong Kong economy shrank -1.2% in 2019 & the bad news is that 2020 won't be better given this virus that basically shuts most activities down in Q1 2020 & maybe even Q2 2020...
Have we seen "lock down" situation in CN and other countries like this before? Past may not be any guide. Unless and until contagion multiples slow (regardless of mortality rates), then it's hard to see markets calm? Of course, markets secondary to the human tragedy and lives.
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