Trinh Nguyen

AUD very linked to China via commodity prices & those not doing too hot right now w/ China locked down & so demand for it lower; KRW for obvs reason of China being its numero uno customer; THB for its tourism exposure as a share of GDP (China trade too)pic.twitter.com/MgLGdz5DA9

And the winner of the virus is: JPY for FX but others like PHP, IDR, VND and IDR not doing tooo badly. Btw, did you know that IDR is the best Asian FX ytd!!! +1.1% vs USD while AUD is -4.2% vs USD. Meaning, IDR/AUD is even better!! Losers of the virus is KRW, AUD, THBT & CNY! https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1224530408118738944 …pic.twitter.com/JUvbCtcuVL

SARs peaked roughly about May 2003 so if the paper I posted yesterday is correct & coronavirus peaks around April then we'll look at Q2 2020 economic impact & not just Q1 pic.twitter.com/GcT2ySnSwe

SARs 27 March 2003 to 4 May 2003 Much much lower infection # & rate as it was less infectious.pic.twitter.com/ojEcDvuZaK

Here is the chart of corona virus after 1 month: 19 Jan to 3 Febpic.twitter.com/N0DbQRY59E

Are you ready? Here we go. Comparison b/n SARs vs Corona for mainland deaths + confirmed cases. Btw, deaths in the mainland already exceeds SARs & confirmed cases exceeding by a WIDE MARGIN. So the economic impact'll be WORSE (also China bigger & retail etc more key now).pic.twitter.com/h0L1L0NAqk

Assumption of slowing daily growth rates gets us roughly ~40k by end this wk & deaths around ~800 by end of the wk. By next wk, it depends whether people go back to work vs staying home this wk. Btw, HK just reported a death on the virus so we'll see the external death ratio.pic.twitter.com/6wHGGczsBi

This is kind of encouraging & worrying. The # of people recovered from the #coronavirus is now 632 & seems like growth rate stagnating & so that means 19,806 haven't recovered??? Not sure about this stats...pic.twitter.com/7eJ22mPShE

#coronavirus deaths (only official) & growth rates. Note that it's now 425 & growth rate slowed to 18%pic.twitter.com/KE6nNttOka

Ready? Here are some charts for you for #coronavirus . Confirmed cases & daily growth rates. We're now at 20,438 & growth rate of 19% (rate of growth slowing but base higher so compounding at a slowing but high rate).pic.twitter.com/otyE8Ot6FF

OK, best is to do short-term & wrap around some key ideas on who can stomach this virus/China spillover in Asia. Lots of central bank decision this wk & RBA is today & markets expect a HOLD of 0.75% due to an already weak AUD (down to .669) & OK employment. Some calling for cutspic.twitter.com/cja7CcfZgs

Link on US ISM manu if u want to read from the source (should always read primary data if u have access to interpret data urself). Asian data below. B/c of this, USD rising to 97.8 (note this is just w/ major floaters & mostly EUR & doesn't include CNY) https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?SSO=1 …pic.twitter.com/acpJGAnd2S

There you go, markets closed roughly down -8% for Chinapic.twitter.com/5omukzVTku

Here is a paper forecasting that it will peak in Wuhan on 20 April 2020 & other cities 1-2 wks later. So we're looking at Q2 not just Q1 if this were true. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext …pic.twitter.com/AxDvExV0Xy

Despite taking no action as expected, markets sold EUR. Some say it's because of Trump targeting the EU next (yes, I kid you not I read it on Reuters this morning). Has nothing to do w/ the fact that the strategic review is clearly going to veer the ECB towards somewhere. Well...pic.twitter.com/AE7awp5cAT

Recent history of decision & import growth. Notice we're still in negative growth for imports while rates remain high. In 2017, when imports blew up, rates were too low & then they tightened way too much in 2018 & imports & growth went south in 2019. Here we are. Cautious againpic.twitter.com/5b4oOEEbib

Briefing begins. BI likes to keep the suspense high by starting w/ the details & decision later. I love this bit of news: Indonesia to PUSH FOR HIGHER FDI!!! Waiting for the reform package anxiously :-)pic.twitter.com/6cw485KJM3

Decision soon, fingers crossed - @Trinhnomics calling for a 25bps & consensus is a hold. IDR appreciated already 1.9% & CPI slower & growth weak. So WHY NOT? https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1219884655836446721 …pic.twitter.com/xnHSIJiwe4

Actually LIBOR overnight is only 1.53925 so HIBOR/LIBOR spread 37bps pic.twitter.com/KY9iQfpZJc

HKD money market rates vs USD money market rates pic.twitter.com/JjmwjslM5C