Trinh Nguyen

@Trinhnomics

Senior economist for emerging Asia ; Nonresident scholar for the Asia Program ; Views are all mine and you are free to use/like/rt.

Hong Kong
Joined March 2013

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  1. Pinned Tweet
    5 Jul 2018

    Okay, I think I figured out what is Trump's ultimate game in this escalated US-China trade tensions and I think he will get it. Will share my thoughts in a thread soon! 😎

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  2. 5 hours ago

    Btw, Hong Kong economy shrank -1.2% in 2019 & the bad news is that 2020 won't be better given this virus that basically shuts most activities down in Q1 2020 & maybe even Q2 2020... 😬😬😬

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  3. 5 hours ago

    There you go, markets closed roughly down -8% for China

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  4. 5 hours ago

    Here is a paper forecasting that it will peak in Wuhan on 20 April 2020 & other cities 1-2 wks later. So we're looking at Q2 not just Q1 if this were true.

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  5. 10 hours ago

    While u mull on this (not a virus expert so have no idea when contagion'll peak; China bulls tend to estimate this like next wk & bears'll estimate longer lasting cycle), something to think also: Sectors that can stomach this best & worst in China as earnings fall.

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  6. 10 hours ago

    Here are the key questions for whether this is a short-term (Q1) or a bit longer lasting: a) When'll the infection peak, as in we need to see a containment soon for social activities to resume; b) Effectiveness of support from the gov' to counter the decline of earnings impact;

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  7. 11 hours ago

    What happens the next day for when markets fell >8%? In 2007, it rell each time but by much less. In 2015, fell the next day & so buying the dip was catching the falling knife. What happens tom? Stocks are re-pricing expectations of earnings & question is whether it overshoots.

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  8. 11 hours ago

    Dates that SHCOMP fall >-8%: 27 Feb 2007 by -8.8% 4 June 2007 by -8.3% 27 July 2015 by -8.5% 24 August 2015 by -8.5% & today 3 Feb 2020 by -8.4%

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  9. 11 hours ago

    The number 8 is a lucky number in China & markets are down about today. Note that this is a lot of pent-up selling demand due to the holidays. The uncertainty is also adding to this knee-jerk reaction. Q: How often does SHCOMP fall >8% since 2001? Answer: 4 times excl today.

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  10. 12 hours ago

    Good morning Hong Kong! Landed from LAX & everyone has a mask & the streets are quiet. Mainland China markets open & commodity futures hit the downside limit. CNH weakens more than CNY. The virus is infecting social activities, from tourism to retail & even industrial activities

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  11. Jan 28

    As in we write for an audience & that imaginary audience shapes how we think & how our brain is wired. I believe Benedict Anderson borrowed his idea of imagined community there. Anyway, talk to u guys later. Don’t let Mr. Market or Twitter shape ur consciousness too much! 👋🏻 👩🏻‍🌾🙇🏻‍♀️

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  12. Jan 28

    Well, I think the main pt is that we use our eyes in print & so essentially ignoring other senses like touch, hearing, olfactory etc, which does not capture all of the human experience. Meaning, format shapes the content & meaning. Also when we read, it shapes our consciousness.

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  13. Jan 28

    I’m reading Marshall McLuhan The Gutenberg Galaxy. U r supposed to read this before his media book. It reads like an academic tweet storm on the study of the evolution of human communication & how that shapes our consciousness. Very timely for our electronic age. Some key pts are

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  14. Jan 28

    Been gardening a lot, as in digging holes for new fruit trees. Easy when the ground is moist. Planted 6 already & hopefully they’ll develop roots to survive the drought. If u want to harvest, gonna plant 🌱 early. Will go fishing tonight. Other than Mediterranean gardening books

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  15. Jan 28

    Broke my own rule last night & tweeted over the holidays & was a mistake. Not because I don’t think I am right but rather the fact that when u do, u allow the voices that reply to be part of your consciousness. Anyway, all this is to say enjoy the volatility. I’ll be back in Feb.

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  16. Jan 23

    Btw, the point of the paper isn't about negative rates but to create a 2-tier monetary system in which CASH IS TAXED & electronic money isn't.

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  17. Jan 23

    Despite taking no action as expected, markets sold EUR. Some say it's because of Trump targeting the EU next (yes, I kid you not I read it on Reuters this morning). Has nothing to do w/ the fact that the strategic review is clearly going to veer the ECB towards somewhere. Well...

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  18. Jan 23

    So the ECB is so good at achieving its 2% CPI target that it has to change how it measures CPI and on top of this adding a new mandate of fighting against climate change. Can't recall climate change in monetary books. Reminds me of the foundation of the ECB, which was political👈🏻

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  19. Retweeted
    Jan 23

    For every like & retweet of our e-card, Natixis APAC will donate HK$10 to our partner, PSE For a Child’s Smile. Act now! 🙂

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  20. Retweeted
    Jan 23
    Replying to

    But the local companies are raising their VND 2-5y bonds mostly at 8-15% yield (properties and SMEs firms are among the highest). The liquidity is not flusted equally thanks to SBV regulations.

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  21. Jan 22

    Recent history of decision & import growth. Notice we're still in negative growth for imports while rates remain high. In 2017, when imports blew up, rates were too low & then they tightened way too much in 2018 & imports & growth went south in 2019. Here we are. Cautious again👇🏻

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