Trinh

@Trinhnomics

Opinions are entirely my own on economics, finance, history and socioeconomic transformation, w/ a focus on EM Asia. Not investment advice.

Hong Kong
যোগদান করেছেন মার্চ ২০১৩

টুইট

আপনি @Trinhnomics-কে ব্লক করেছেন

আপনি কি এই টুইটগুলি দেখতে চাওয়ার বিষয়ে নিশ্চিত? টুইটগুলি দেখা হলে @Trinhnomics অবরোধ মুক্ত হবে না।

  1. পিন করা টুইট
    ৫ জুলাই

    Okay, I think I figured out what is Trump's ultimate game in this escalated US-China trade tensions and I think he will get it. Will share my thoughts in a thread soon! 😎

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  2. ১৩ ঘন্টা আগে

    4) So it boils down to a) import content b) which is about PROFIT MARGINS & if your profit margin is THIN, would u pass on the savings u make via FX valuation to gain more VOLUME? public firms' profit margin is 6.1 vs global of 7.3. Margins for SOEs are even thinner.

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    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  3. ১৪ ঘন্টা আগে

    3) Say u are a Chinese exporter & sell phones priced at USD100. In 30 March, it was CNY638 (1USD=6.38CNY). Now the CNY lost 7% since then if priced at USD100 then it's CNY672 (1USD=6.72). You import semiconductor to assemble the phone & import costs went up. Do you re-price??? 🤔

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  4. ১৪ ঘন্টা আগে

    2) Will the J-curve impact would occur (note that this doesn't in Japan b/c they offshored production & export contracts are not so price elastic). Anyway, only 15% of total trade is settled in (so mostly USD). HOW DEPENDENT ON IMPORTS ARE CHINESE EXPORTS? KEY! 🤔

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  5. ১৪ ঘন্টা আগে

    1) Chinese public firms are very internally oriented & overseas earnings are roughly 10% of total (much less than say >50% by Korea). So the valuation impact of -6% vs USD since Q1 2018 isn't going to boost corps' earnings materially.

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  6. ১৪ ঘন্টা আগে

    is weaker, (-6% since end Q1 2018 vs USD) question is: IS THIS GOOD FOR CHINA? Will this pass-through to help corporate earnings (like & b/c of majority earnings come externally)?🤔Will this feed through to exports to boost price competitiveness? 🇨🇳

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  7. ১৫ ঘন্টা আগে

    Another pt is this: DO ur own analysis & info is supplementary but need to have own valuation of what's a good price to buy before reading recommendation by "experts" (looked at the ANR for top 20 stocks in the HSI by weight & let me tell u that it's OFF). No such thing as easy $

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  8. ১৫ ঘন্টা আগে

    The pt of this table is not to say BUY EVERYTHING but to give perspective RELATIVE to the excessive exuberant in LATE JAN, & if u type in the security & type ANR (analyst rec), price is WAY BELOW TARGET. But it's up to u to decide a) TARGET OFF? b) @ which price'll scream BUY?

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  9. ১৮ জুলাই

    4) Here are the 50 companies in the index, their contribution to the drop (weighted: for example Tencent is 10% of index & dropped 20% so its contribution is 2%); price/earning ratios; Dividend yield; Whether it's oversold, etc. Hope that was useful for your MPF allocation 😎🇭🇰

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  10. ১৮ জুলাই

    3) a) FINANCIALS, have DRAGGED DOWN the HSI MOST; b) 2nd is communication; c) utilities are POSITIVE. Obvs at this point, you are thinking, gosh, I need to brush on what's happening to China financial markets. Yes, even if it seems far away, it's part of ur retirement portfolio

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  11. ১৮ জুলাই

    2) So whether u care about China or not, ur retirement account is TIED to its financial sector (banks/property developers/oil/consumer goods) so it's good to brush up on China macro. What's happening in HK is key too, such as HIBOR & the property market. So what's happening???

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  12. ১৮ জুলাই

    1) If a resident, HIGH CHANCE ur MPF is buying HSI overtly/passively. Key to know what is in the Hang Seng Index. Composed of 50 firms & the composition of sectors are below (59% financials (yes, u are buying Chinese banks). Biggest security is Tencent & 2nd is HSBC 😎

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  13. ১৮ জুলাই

    Are you ready? Twitter storm coming, & this time, if you live in 🇭🇰, it's for u (also for those interested in HSI). First, the index has dropped -15.2% since peak on 26 January, so I hope you sold. Assuming you did, the question is, when should you buy it back? 🤔

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  14. ১৮ জুলাই

    Sell & go away in . Okay, may be true for stocks but defo not FOREIGN APPETITE FOR : Foreign buyers up! Who bought more? What did they buy? Treasury bills 😎

    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  15. ১৮ জুলাই

    What'll do? summarized key & arguments for China. To LONG an asset, one must think of what people that SHORT go on. And both arguments are rather convincing. What do you think will happen? 🇨🇳I have my own take but I'll keep it for myself 😎

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  16. ১৮ জুলাই

    Another way to look at that table of . Since peak of market on 26 January, & equity markets diverged. Both are DOWN but look the gap. In other words, the key point for those looking for value is: a) Is this the beginning? b) Markets over-reacting for China?

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  17. ১৭ জুলাই

    Emotion drives excessive market reaction - GREED & FEAR. But it also drives IRRATIONALLY even by elites - who think they are above it all but in reality allow hatred for to subordinate COMMON SENSE. Don’t just REACT, be PROACTIVE. What’s the agenda?Good morning🤗

    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  18. ১৭ জুলাই

    Sir, your ramen is JPY800 Customer: OMYGOSH, that is JPY880! Fine, fiscal austerity. Time to make ramen @ home. Lady, the dress is JPY10000 Customer: That's 11000! 🤔NM, let me just see if I got something as cute in my closet. 10% is easy to feel 10% poorer/more expensive

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  19. ১৭ জুলাই

    has a demographic problem - as in DE-POPULATION >LOW DEMAND>LOW INFLATION & EXCESS SAVINGS. How do we fix this? 🤔TAX CONSUMPTION! 10%! Gosh, any human can calculate 10% & what do u think'll happen to DEMAND?

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  20. ১৭ জুলাই

    Are u are bull or bear? Vote w/ ur wallet 😎. Much more interesting now that assets are on sale. And if u read articles like the below (basically China has plenty of space & will be OK no matter what 🇨🇳), then can get Chinese assets much cheaper!

    এই থ্রেডটি দেখান
    পূর্বাবস্থায়
  21. ১৬ জুলাই

    Timeline of since many will use this as 1 of the reasons for the Q2 slowdown of China growth (NO, IT ISN'T BUT WILL BE SOON IN H2). Look at the DIVERGENCE of PERFORMANCE b/n the & . Why do you think the US is the only market that is still up? 😎

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