This reminds me of back when the first shale horizontals were being drilled in the Midland Basin, a friend (who is a PE) whose company was involved, theorized production would flatten out at 50 bopd. Do you have any what average LOEs are running on a 25 bopd well?
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Did not touch LOE on this; it does vary wildly from ranch to ranch, play to play. But you have to start thinking about the profitability on anything producing below 20 BD.
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Trent, why do you think XOM and CVX are plowing so heavily into shale at current prices given this data on much faster decline rates past year 5. Given most of these shale wells are at 150K-200K cumulative oil by end of year 5, it seems EURs at best for oil are 300-400k?
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The econ of scale they can bring is one of the biggest reason analysts see XOM and CVX moving the needle the other direction. But what I see missing in that argument is a real dialogue about rock and fluid physics. Are they altering physics too?
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30% of all EF wells now make < 10 BOPD and that is at/near economic limits, IMO. The # of shale oil wells in the US making <30 BOPD, and still dropping, is astounding. When is America going to wake up? Exporting LTO, extracted on credit, is stupid, short sighted energy policy.
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Who the hell was assuming the wells were going to reach terminal decline at year 5? I’ve never seen any company with a type curve like that, it’s completely unrealistic. The question is whether they hit terminal decline in yr 10, 15, etc. and whether it’s a 8, 10, or 15% decline.
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If the decline rate is still changing YOY, it’s not in terminal decline. The article’s use of “terminal decline” when the wells are still in a hyperbolic decline is wholly inaccurate.
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*dons
@AggiePe ‘s hat and clears throat* “What gotdang difference does it make what year 5 decline is when the well has already make 600mbo and paid out 3x? That next 400mbo is like a triple A bond paying out nice and slow.”Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Having been involved in multiple conversations in e&p pubCo about whether or not to restore production, I can tell you that these wells are considered trash much earlier than many think. If they’re not holding acreage they’re essentially temp abandoned (might as well be abandoned
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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