Sweden’s approach constitutes a “natural experiment” that allows us to predict the consequence of an early return to normalcy elsewhere in the world. Read this excellent thread.https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1262012815663149058 …
He missed the point. Higher death rates in the short term were expected. If the Swedish model is effective we will see fatalities diminish there while remaining fairly consistent in other countries. We won’t know the results for 6-12 months.
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The question is, at this stage, how much of the swedish population has been infected and when does appreciable herd immunity begin. Unfortunately, Sweden's testing has been abysmal, so there is no option but to estimate an IFR and use the death count.
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Even with an IFR of 0.1%, only 30% of the community has been infected). With an IFR of 1% (which is becoming the expert consensus) it's only 3%. Given how high the R is for COVID-19, appreciable herd immunity doesnt start until 70%+ are infected.
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That analysis misses a lot of points. It's not an analysis of complex reality but of simple calculations in a vacuum that have no chance of representing reality. We've had data on who is vulnerable since China and that data is only getting stronger.
Merci. Twitter en tiendra compte pour améliorer votre fil. SupprimerSupprimer
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As long as the Coronavirus mitigation precautions of Social Distancing & mask-wearing aren’t vigilantly practiced by one & all, Coronavirus will continue to have infinite avenues to spread by unwitting asymptomatic Silent Spreaders who are unaware of their having the disease.
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At the time they tested positive for Coronavirus, anywhere from 20% to 50% of people displayed no symptoms. 17% to 20% of those testing positive for Coronavirus required hospitalization. Once put on a ventillator in a hospital, 70% to 80% died from Coronavirus complications.
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