There has been a lot of discussion of the Swedish approach to coping with the #COVID19 pandemic, and of whether their strategy of more voluntary restrictions and a more rapid approach to reaching ‘herd immunity’ would work. Let’s talk about the results so far. 1/
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It’s been known for some time that the COVID19 death rate in Sweden was 3-7 times that of its similar Nordic neighbors, even if Sweden was doing better than many other countries with more severe restrictions, like the USA. https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/05/16/is-swedens-approach-to-covid-19-wise-or-reckless … via
@TheEconomist 2/30 réponses 153 Retweets 510 j'aimeAfficher cette discussion -
Sweden banned gatherings of >50 people. Schools for kids <16 are open (older pupils tele-learn from home). Bars, restaurants, & gyms are open, w physical-distancing rules. People were asked to work from home if possible. Elderly were told to stay home. https://www.ft.com/content/31de03b8-6dbc-11ea-89df-41bea055720b … 3/
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Swedes themselves have *mostly* acted sensibly. Use of public transport has fallen significantly. A third of people say they avoid going to their workplace. Daily restaurant turnover fell by 70% in the month through April 22. But good behavior is hardly uniform. 4/pic.twitter.com/L02LjzQSFO
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Sweden chose this path in some sense w reason, because absent a vaccine or total, hermetic isolation of a population, there's no way to avoid a plague like this. Plus, full lockdown is a stop-gap measure, to flatten the curve; some set of procedures must eventually replace it. 5/
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But could the Swedes somehow miraculously thread the needle – and protect their vulnerable members while also allowing the pathogen to spread relatively unchecked in its population, building collective immunity without letting people die? (Figure from April 6.) 6/pic.twitter.com/0tLXI4PuVp
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Well, in this detailed & terrific new preprint via
@karin_modig &@MaEbeling, the results are in. As expected, the price of this#COVID19 strategy is death. This is a sad truth about what happens when there is a deadly germ like SARS-CoV-2 circulating. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.10.20096909v1 … 7/29 réponses 421 Retweets 1 054 j'aimeAfficher cette discussion
This misses the point. Higher death rates in the short term were always anticipated. The question of effectiveness won’t be answerable for 6-12 months. If the Swedish approach works, you will see death rates there straggle off while remaining consistent in other countries.
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En réponse à @TravisEkbom @NAChristakis et
But it doesn't work, never did, never will. All models arrive at the same conclusion even the most pessimistic ones (ie global spread unavoidable)
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