Travis Ekbom  💣

This has to end. The experts have no plan except “let’s wait and see”. And for some reason it’s completely taboo to even suggest alternative strategies.https://twitter.com/AP/status/1245690679399002118 …

The plan as outlined for Minnesota is to implement safe-at-home for 2-4 weeks while ICUs can be built (state had 350 for anticipated 74,000 cases). These ICUs are being built across the state in hotels and stadiums. After prep, those not at risk can return to normal behavior.

That sounds reasonable minus the weeks of uncertainty.

Not sure what you mean. The uncertainty exists because of the virus, not this specific reaction to it. If we did nothing and continued as usual we would have no way of anticipating who would cloister themselves, how supply lines would breakdown, how hospitals would cope, etc...

I would argue we are already in that situation and the economic numbers show. I have to follow this stuff closely so we can forecast our company’s future moves and it is very impractical. Our biggest concerns are not with the virus but with what damage the governments will do.

That's a McNamara fallacy. The impact the virus would have had distinct of government can't be measured, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. We were already seeing widespread but inconsistent voluntary closures. Blanket government action provided more certainty, not less.

No, the McNamara fallacy would be believing the world is going to crumble to the ground if we don’t just hold still in fear of what the virus could do. We can measure both the effects of the disease and observe the economic effects of government intervention at the same time.

A McNamara fallacy is the belief that if something can’t be measured it doesn’t exist. There is no way to measure the effect of the virus independent of government action because that hypothetical collapsed as soon as there was government action. Virus disruption still exists.