This has to end. The experts have no plan except “let’s wait and see”. And for some reason it’s completely taboo to even suggest alternative strategies.https://twitter.com/AP/status/1245690679399002118 …
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No, the McNamara fallacy would be believing the world is going to crumble to the ground if we don’t just hold still in fear of what the virus could do. We can measure both the effects of the disease and observe the economic effects of government intervention at the same time.
A McNamara fallacy is the belief that if something can’t be measured it doesn’t exist. There is no way to measure the effect of the virus independent of government action because that hypothetical collapsed as soon as there was government action. Virus disruption still exists.
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Yes, I'm familiar with the term. I'm pretty steeped in economic praxeology and game theory. I'm taking in all considerations, even the unknown variables—which are wildly being reported and modeled.
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But there are non-statist ways of measuring the extent of the virus. You are therefore making a counterfactual argument. And there is uncertainty because no one has a solid 2-4 week pause. "Experts" are proposing an entire array of solutions—some lasting weeks, other months.
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