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As a secondary issue, he rightly says there are work incentive trade-offs with the policy we advocate of strengthening the automatic stabilisers when monetary policy is more constrained. But we should be working to reduce those trade-offs, not giving up on automatic stabilisers
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Kenneth Rogoff argues that fiscal policy might work in theory as a recession fighting tool but will fail in practice. We don't agree but worth a read. Main issue: his political economy take is very US centric (that Congress = messy fiscal policy).https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/resisting-risky-fiscal-policy-by-kenneth-rogoff-2020-02 …
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Torsten Bell proslijedio/la je Tweet
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@bankofengland have interpreted all of the past year's GDP weakness as supply and taken a signal that this is telling us about weaker supply in future. IF@OBR_UK do anything similar, it will make@sajidjavid life very difficult. All very clearly set out by@ChrisGiles_
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1224458675302977538 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
So working poverty is a feature of our times - but work still pays to reduce poverty. It is however far from enough. Read the full report from Lindsay Judge and Hannah Slaughter - with thanks for
@Clarion_Group for support and insightshttps://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/working-hardship/ …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Crucially, working poverty isnt up because of work getting worse but because social security has become less generous. A single parent with 2 children has to work 23 hours/week on minimum wage to be out of poverty. Would be 16 hours without post-2010 cutspic.twitter.com/Yg0PW58SXJ
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Social renters higher poverty risk isnt about the typical social renter doing shorter hours but is related to fewer second earners. Also important to note that even when you have two earners social renters are much more likely to be in poverty (25% vs 9% for other tenures).pic.twitter.com/a15hVHceGC
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Second earners going into work is what makes a big difference in lifting families out of poverty - obviously not possible for all householdspic.twitter.com/VYSp04PWGR
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This is because churn into and out of poverty amongst poorer working households is a big feature of our economy. Half of those in working poverty in 2014 move out by 2017 - but a similar number of working households fell back below the poverty linepic.twitter.com/C7en7vbby7
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While entering work leads to big reductions in poverty, it far from removes the risk (especially for those in social renting) and we don't see big further declines in poverty risk in the following yearspic.twitter.com/ShwhwNjVrP
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Does working poverty having risen year on year mean work is no longer part of the answer to poverty? No - when someone enters work it reduces their poverty risk by halfpic.twitter.com/hI1nbkA82m
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Poverty in 21st Century Britain is now overwhelmingly about working poverty. Does that mean work is no longer part of the answer to pov?ertypic.twitter.com/knXWvy2Wlx
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Boris Johnson has done a huge amount to make this feel like a new government... nonetheless this parliament will be the Universal Credit parliament where the majority of families shift into the new system. There’s no way round owning the huge benefit reform they’ve inherited
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Universal Credit roll out delayed to 2024. Not a surprise.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51318730 …
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Torsten Bell proslijedio/la je Tweet
Some news: starting today I am the new Director of Venture at
@resfoundation - looking forward to working with@GavinJKelly1@TorstenBell and all the team.#NewJobHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
It's (mainly) non-regression (ie dont go backwards on protections) rather than alignment being asked for.
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I know easy story today is EU insists UK sign up to its rules and bull dog Britain says no... but (with the exception of state aid) it's really hard to say that total alignment is what the EU is asking for. "Common high standards" is not the same standards https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/communication-annex-negotiating-directives.pdf …pic.twitter.com/sYdQkrSwfN
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Great initiative. Congrats Lindsey.https://twitter.com/lindsey_mac/status/1224266087900045312 …
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Yes stark UK/EU message differences today. But in the end the real question here isn't total policy freedom or obey all EU rules - it's whether there's enough of a landing space on shared minimal standards for people to accept that a sufficiently level playing field exists
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The challenge for PM that everyone (including him) is focusing on today is EU wanting degree of alignment - but return of sectoral politics/lobbying is going to be as big a challenge to this wider free trade good argument (and to US trade deal in particular)
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Short version of PM's speech: Pro sovereignty and pro free trade. Anti trade-offs.
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