Up to this point, most of the focus has been on individual-scale response or community-scale response. But there is something important in between. 2/https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1278700288115986438 …
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Now that everyone better understands airborne transmission, I want to lay out a hopeful near-term strategy that should be feasible. 1/
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We know from the research of
@AdamJKucharski that a small number of super-spreaders are responsible for the vast majority of cases. We need to focus on clusters and settings that breed clusters. 3/Deze collectie tonen -
Now look at what Japan did. They did traditional, individual-scale contact tracing, yes. But they focused on contact tracing to find clusters - and learned the conditions that breed them. 4/pic.twitter.com/xOXEtAoJJa
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Japan did a massive campaign to educate the public on these conditions. 5/pic.twitter.com/Gg5m3AnDSe
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So what does this mean in the U.S.? First, close venues where the Three Cs overlap until there is a vaccine. Congress should pay these venues to remain closed. Nice piece here by
@JHWeissmann on the idea:https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/07/bars-covid-bailout-restaurants.html …Deze collectie tonen -
Second, focus on restrospective contact tracing to find clusters. At the moment resources are limited and individual-scale contact tracing is unlikely to be very effective with such rampant baseline transmission/incidence.
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Third, governors should lead. Educate the public. Talk about clusters and the conditions that breed them ad nauseum. The public does not understand airborne transmission in indoor spaces. Do a campaign equivalent to the Three Cs.
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Important to note: the successful northeastern states are essentially following this strategy; they just have not articulated it.
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PITTSBURGH, after a spike in cases, has explicitly adopted this strategy. Every state needs to do this now. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/12/us/coronavirus-pittsburgh-pennsylvania.html?referringSource=articleShare …pic.twitter.com/gZGvNOc5lj
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More on Japan’s focus on clusters:https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1272439676767518720 …
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California is now doing this strategy (perhaps without knowing it or knowing how long they will need to do it)https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1282752861835649024 …
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Good roundup from
@carlzimmer about what we know about transmission that suggests this strategy:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/science/how-coronavirus-spreads.html?referringSource=articleShare …Deze collectie tonen -
This is true. It’s time for a new strategy in the near term.https://twitter.com/PeterSullivan4/status/1283184225135529985 …
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