1 “The resolution of the Ukraine question.” A mistakenly published Russian article gives us a chilling insight into the neo-imperialist thinking in Russia that drives Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. A (long) THREAD.
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Thomas de Waal
@Tom_deWaal
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe. Scholar/writer on Caucasus, E. Europe, Russia. 2022-3 Fellow at IWM, Vienna. Translator of Osip Mandelstam.
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2. RIA Novosti news agency accidentally published an article, tagged with a publication date of 8AM on February 26, already celebrating a Russian victory and collapse of the Ukrainian state within an anticipated two days. It's still on their site.
Waking up to horrendous scenes after Armenian attack on city of Ganje. Picture shared by my friend Swiss journalist Andre Widmer. He speaks of many casualties.
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25. We can only hope Ukrainian resistance, international pressure and diplomacy will eventually force a re-think, but what will have happened to Ukraine, how many thousands of lives will have been lost before that happens? ENDS
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3. The main theme is that the "operation" is a defeat for the West's project to defeat Russia. That Putin seized the moment to return Ukraine to its historic Slavic union with Russia and Belarus. Potential NATO candidacy is seen as a symptom of the problem, not the main cause.
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4. Some quotations first and a few comments at the end:
The author calls this a “new era.” “Russia is restoring its historic unity: the tragedy of 1991, that terrible catastrophe of our history, that unnatural aberration, has been overcome.”
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19. A few final comments. This is a Russian imperialist discourse: rejected at the end of the USSR, given respectability again under Putin in 2000 but still marginal. It entered Putin’s public speeches after seizure of Crimea—and now has entirely captured Putin’s world-view.
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5. He concedes it's "a civil war in which brothers still shoot at each other even though they were divided only by their membership of the Russian and the Ukrainian armies. But there will now no longer be a Ukraine which is anti-Russia.”
The only mention of Ukrainians as people
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6. Putin, we are told, had to act now or to lose Ukraine forever.
“We can say without a drop of exaggeration, that Vladimir Putin took upon himself a historic responsibility, by deciding not to leave the resolution of the Ukrainian question to future generations.”
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24. The piece also reveals how far paranoia, grievance and aggression is embedded in state decision making—and is thus far immune to an alternative reality. Part of this is a willingness to endure hardship in pursuit of this Russian imperial project.
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23. The author gets it wrong anticipating Ukraine’s collapse and European disunity. Thank the Lord! But there's less to cheer elsewhere. The bet that only the West cares about Ukraine still has to be disproved, given equivocation of China, India, Turkey’s limited response.
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8. The answer? Kill Ukraine's sovereignty.“Now this problem no longer exists: Ukraine has returned to Russia. This doesn’t mean that its statehood will be liquidated but it will be re-structured, re-established and returned to its natural condition as part of the Russian world…
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21. The author gives no agency to Ukrainians as people. He twists himself in a knot asserting that “brothers still shoot at each other, even though they have been divided only by their membership of the Russian and the Ukrainian armies.” It's regrettable fratricide, folks.
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10. The author moves to the West. “Did anyone in.. Paris and Berlin, seriously believe that Moscow would give up Kiev?… the West as a whole, and Europe in particular, lacked the strength to keep Ukraine within its sphere of influence, let alone to take Ukraine for itself."
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7. The main issue was “the complex of a divided nation and a complex of national humiliation, when the Russian House began to lose part of its foundation (the Kievan one) and then was forced to reconcile itself to the existence of two states of not one but two peoples.”
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22. He magnifies differences in the West over Russia into major splits. That's now answered by Germany's historic reaction to events. Like most imperialists he fails how small countries, from the Baltic States in 1940 to Czechoslovakia in 1968, feel about big neighbours
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13. A big theme for the author is that France and Germany are allegedly fundamentally different from the “Anglo-Saxons,” the UK and US, who are trying to assert Western hegemony over everyone, them included.
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20. Much of the Russian foreign establishment is anti-Western to various degrees but not nearly this aggressive (which is why most of them did not predict the invasion). But their views mean little when Putin makes all the decisions.
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9. “…In which borders and in what form.. (through the CSTO, and the Eurasian Union or as part of the Union State between Russia and Belorussia)?—questions like this will be decided when we have placed a firm full stop to the history of a Ukraine as an anti-Russian entity.”
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12. The big geopolitical clash will cost Russia but it will survive:
“No amount of Western pressure on Russia will have any results. There will be losses from the transformation of the confrontation on both sides, but Russia is ready for them morally and geopolitically.”
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14. “The German project of European integration makes no strategic sense as long as there is Anglo-Saxon ideological, military and geopolitical control over the Old World.”“Europeans are now completely uninterested in building a new iron curtain on their eastern borders.”
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11. “More precisely, they had only one option: to bet on the further collapse of Russia, that is of the Russian Federation. But it should have been clear twenty years ago that this would not work. And already 15 years ago, after Putin's Munich speech [of 2007]..."
My old friend Carlotta was in Barda yesterday. Her heartbreaking despatch.
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17. Article ends:
“China and India, Latin America and Africa, the Islamic world and Southeast Asia - no one believes that the West leads the world order, much less sets the rules of the game. Russia has not only thrown down a challenge to the West,...
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15. “[T]he construction of a new world order - and this is the third dimension of current events - is accelerating, and its contours are more and more clearly poking through the unravelling fabric of Anglo-Saxon globalization. A multipolar world has finally become a reality.”
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18. "..it's shown the era of Western global domination can be considered fully and definitively over. The new world will be built by all civilizations and centres of power, naturally, together with the West (united or not) -but not on its terms and not according to its rules.”
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*26 Thank you all for the huge response! Let me add one caveat. We can’t know that the article reflects the Kremlin’s intentions, only that a big news agency commissioned it to celebrate victory—and it “rhymes” with Putin’s big speech last week. Let's hope other views prevail.
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16. "the rest of the world sees and understands perfectly well: this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia's recovering its historical space and place in the world."
1 A long🧵on the situation in #Transdniestria/#Transnistria, misconceptions and fears that it could turn into a new front in the war.
My main point is there's a shared interest both in Transdniestria (TN) and in right-bank Moldova in stopping the conflict from reaching them.
Speech from President Aliyev not only announces return of occupied territory, also vows "return of Karabakh." No talk of diplomacy or ceasefire. An Armenian village in NK given Azerbaijani name. World please take note: conflict is entering a more tragic and dangerous phase.
Horrible news. This AM a military offensive by Azerbaijan on #Karabakh frontline. Already a small war. Heavy weapons used, Internet down in Az, Arm. side announced mobilization. Follows rise in bellicose rhetoric from both sides—Karabakh Arm. leader declared today...
Why did Armenians attack Ganje last night, causing multiple casualties? To provoke a response and draw in Russia? Revenge? (I'm told Stepanakert was shelled too) In any case I recall how Gandhi said, "An eye for an eye only ends up making the whole world blind." #NKpeace
Angela Merkel calls Pashinyan and Aliyev, visits Navalny in hospital, arranges to meet Tikhanovskaya. I'm glad one world leader is being an actual leader.
Awful news
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#Ganja #Azerbaijan The scene here looks more like all-out war than ceasefire. Seems the Russian brokered truce was dead on arrival. Important to say #Azerbaijan too is accused of violation the truce and shelling civilians areas in #NagornoKarabakh
I’ve almost stopped commenting on Twitter on Armenia-Azerbaijan (too many vigilantes out there on both sides) but this is really depressing to behold. The shooting has stopped, but the victory=humiliation-of-the-other mentality lives on.
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Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev today, at a newly opened exhibition displaying the helmets of Armenian soldiers killed in last year's Second Karabakh War
1 An especially horrendous day in the new #Karabakh war. Reports from the Azerbaijani town of Barda of a missile strike killing at least 21, wounding dozens more. Probably the worst civilian death toll of the conflict so far.
With so much else happening in the world, the appalling case of Gulag historian Yury Dmitriev being given a 13-year prison sentence by a Russian court is not giving the attention it deserves. The man is a hero.
The news everyone feared but hoped could be avoided. Azerbaijan launches military assault on Karabakh. Bitter terrible news for the people in Karabakh and for the whole region. Read live updates here
I am so saddened and shocked to hear of the death of Hikmet Hadjizade. Azerbaijan's truest democrat, man of principle, most devoted lover of rock and roll, a ray of sunshine and humour in many lives. RIP, dear Hikmet, you left us too early.
New thread. I'm quoted here on the #Karabakh fighting. (There is a lot more nuance if you watch the whole interview) I’m aware that people like to quote me selectively so important for me to state a few core beliefs I have about this conflict
Yes. Ganje this morning. A reckless missile attack on a city, supposedly against an airbase, unsurprisingly hits normal city streets. Casualties reported. Long-range missiles do this. Civilians on both sides are bearing the brunt of this and it has to stop.
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Attacking historic cities & civilians, spreading hate & terror, attack all the moral/ethical values that lie in our hearts: respect for #HumanRights, rule of law, rules of war, & most importantly, the peaceful resolutions of conflict.
STOP!
NOW!
#Azerbaijan
#Armenia
#NKpeace
One big Question hangs in the air, as #Belarus crisis deepens, #Lukashenko loses his 26-year-old grip on power. How will Russia respond? I’ve followed Russia’s relations with its post-Soviet neighbours for 25 years. A THREAD on how Russia has no good options. 1/7
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I also say here (apologies to friends in Paris) that, if the OSCE Minsk Group format continues, it’s time for a rotation. After 23 years France should give up its co-chair role to another European country. A mediator with equal regard in Baku and Yerevan is needed now.
A peaceful European country is experiencing an unprovoked invasion unseen since the Second World War. Heartbreaking, tragic and totally senseless.
Tbilisi this evening. wow.
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Sergei Parajanov takes flight! 40th anniversary of Yuri Mechitov’s famous photo.
Horrible videos of atrocities against Armenian captives have emerged over last few days, as tells here. So many war crimes were committed in this and last war and are unpunished. Only an international investigation will have any credibility
In 2013 I wrote this essay on how I came to write my book Black Garden. I felt that the Karabakh conflict needed a different narrative which was neither the mainstream Armenian and Azerbaijani versions and set out to write it...
Officially Austrian, and proud to have a second citizenship! Thinking today of my grandmother and her parents, stripped of their citizenship in 1938, and glad that the arc of history has come around so many years later. (Outside , photo credit to )
Not true. As I have said a few times recently there are around 1,500 “Russian” soldiers in #Transnistria/ #Transdniestria of whom less than 100 are uniformed Russians, the rest are locals. South Ossetia or Crimea this is not
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There are at least 12,000 Russian troops stationed in Transnistria, which reached to within 25 miles of Odesa, Ukraine’s chief port and third-largest city. Odesa is potentially a major target in Moscow’s stalled push to seize Ukraine’s Black Sea coast - NYTimes
1 For those distracted by news elsewhere: the war in #Karabakh may be moving towards a potentially bloody battle for the city of Shusha (which Armenians call Shushi) deep inside the territory. Azerbaijani forces are reported to be no more than 3-4 km away.
1 Pay attention to #Georgia 🇬🇪 today! A THREAD Last night police in Tbilisi forcibly dispersed a protest against a new Foreign Agent law rushed through parliament. It’s an escalation by the ever more authoritarian Georgian Dream govt
Shocking and criminal scenes from Kharkiv. “People literally walking round in a daze” brings back awful memories of those left in Grozny in 1995—another Russian speaking city the Russian armed forces decided to “liberate” with heavy artillery.
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Replying to @AJEnglish and @natachabut
An Al Jazeera team was able to enter the devastated city of Kharkiv in Ukraine after Russia announced a pause in fighting to allow people to leave.
Reporter @stratfordch was shocked by what he saw 
If Azerbaijan wants to put up a sign saying "Albanian church" who can object. It must ensure free passage of Armenians to churches under its control and not touch the Armenian-language inscriptions and tombs there. Helpful to have a UNESCO commission visit all these monuments.
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The old Aghdam, famous for musicians, gangsters + cheap red wine will not return. Rebuilding a new one will be a big endeavour. Returnees will feel anger at seeing these ruins--one element of the new trauma and hostility Azerbaijanis and Armenians are facing in 2020.
We live in a weird world where an American pro-Azerbaijani neocon is fighting for the implementation of Putin’s deal of November 2020 for Russian FSB border guards to guard the Zangezur Corridor/route to Nakhchivan across Armenia.
On the anniversary of the most tragic day of the Karabakh conflict of the 1990s and my own contribution to understanding it.
1 Day 1 of a new war in #Karabakh (an awful thing to write.) A terrible day for Western diplomacy, for peacemakers, above all of course for the people of Karabakh. Main observation, I'm afraid, is that it has the potential to get a whole lot worse.
I spoke to a friend in #Karabakh last night who confirmed how terrible the situation is there – food shortages big queues when supplies do appear. No gas and intermittent electricity. Mourners must walk to a funeral because there's no petrol or diesel.
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3 Shusha has great meaning in Azerbaijan as the birthplace of poets and composers. It was their town in Karabakh before the war, with an 85 percent Azerbaijani population. See this patriotic video released today.
youtube.com/watch?v=STb36H
Horrific. Impunity and lack of investigation of war crimes from the 2020 war is enabling new atrocities, now the apparent killing of these seven unarmed Armenian men in the last Azerbaijan incursion. Glad to see this EU response.
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Another horrible video has emerged of Armenian prisoners of war apparently being executed. If this video is proven to be authentic then this is a war crime that needs to be investigated and the perpetrators punished.
Here is a thoughtful Azerbaijani perspective, that Armenians should pay attention to, even if they don't agree with it. If there had been more Anars on each side over the last 25 years real dialogue would have been possible
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I support all calls for a ceasefire on #KarabakhWar now. But I observe some attempts to maintain the status quo in these calls. In fact, if the superpowers had paid attention to #Azerbaijan's calls to change the status quo in past 20 years, everything would have been different.
Remembering the bravest journalist of them all. Anna, I was glad to have known you. One day Russia will remember you. As says, her fears have been realized. Free journalism is shut down and a veil of darkness has covered Chechnya for 15 years.
I’m being asked to comment on a piece by German academic Christian Kolter alleging I practice “false neutrality” and have a pro-Azerbaijani agenda. Briefly, as I'm very busy: I've never heard of Dr. Kolter TBH (would be glad to see any of his work). Nothing of substance here.
1 A THREAD about Kelbajar. Today was billed as a momentous day for Kelbajar region with Armenian forces scheduled to withdraw from lands they have held since April 1993 + control restored to Azerbaijan. However the timetable has been extended, perhaps to ease potential trouble
A personal despatch from young journalist on experiencing the tragedy of constant war inside #Karabakh. Remember this is a small place where every family is losing loved ones. civilnet.am/news/2020/10/2
I'm checking out of the long passionate Twitter discussion I had with many Azerbaijanis today. I didn't learn much new, but I do get the frustration, I really do. And thanks to those who messaged me privately with kind messages--including some who criticized me publicly!
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16 What now? De facto president is trying to sound friendly to all. As one colleague said, the strategy is “keep as quiet as possible and pray to God that people in Moscow forget that Transdniestria exists”
What a great loss. One of the bravest people I ever met. His mission to Chechnya in 1994 to stop the war was an act of supreme principle and courage. He warned about Russia’s slide away from democracy earlier than almost anyone.
Horrible. The Jewish part of me feels this acutely. In the 19thC Caucasus “hook-nosed” “greedy” Armenians echoed anti-Semitic tropes in Europe. Now a young sculptor studying in Venice repeats it today. I’m glad to see Azerbaijanis rejecting this, but big damage has been done.
RIP, Rustam Ibrahimbekov, brilliant Azerbaijani Oscar-winning screenwriter, fine intellectual, Baku cosmopolitan of the finest sort, one of the most decent people I ever met in the Caucasus. Your country is much poorer without you.
Some organizations may not survive new #Karabakh conflict: CSTO (Russia does not assist Armenia). EU’s #EasternPartnership (2/6 members at war) Also tough for #OSCE, already in crisis. Baku and Yerevan already used veto powers to block decisions, could now make OSCE unworkable.
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3 In 2017 interviewed Khalid. He tells the story of how the only escape route for thousands was by foot across the Murov Mountains. Livestock perished and people froze. Listen to the story of how he walked with his father for two days.
Three months after fighting over #Karabakh ended, here is my attempt at a comprehensive look at what happens next between #Armenia and #Azerbaijan. The human cost was great, emotions are still high. List of unfinished business is long
1 Pres. Biden may recognize the destruction of the Ottoman Armenians in 1915 as the Armenian Genocide , report. It’s the right thing to do. It will start to bring solace and closure to Armenians whose grandparents died in 1915-16.
My piece on the worsening crisis in and around #Karabakh, serious humanitarian needs of local Armenians, ominous signs of new conflict, Azerbaijani hubris/self-confidence and why the world needs to pay much more urgent attention.
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2 In the end if Russian advance continues to Odessa spread of the conflict to Moldova is quite likely. But internationals should bear in mind that TN is far from eager to be Russia’s helper against Ukraine. It's more complex and to suggest so fans conflict.
The ever-growing catastrophe of the new #Karabakh conflict sets it out: Huge death toll of young soldiers, growing civilian casualties. Cluster munitions. Risk of new ethnic cleansing if fighting extends into Karabakh. COVID spike. Winter approaches. A tragedy.
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chathamhouse.org/2020/10/humani In the shadow of geopolitical intrigues, a humanitarian crisis is unfolding in and around Nagorny #Karabakh - my latest for @CHRussiaEurasia #Armenia #Azerbaijan
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8 Importantly Transdniestria, which has a bigger industrial base, is invested in trade with the EU and has quietly joined the EU’s DCFTA free trade zone as an economic part of Moldova. I wrote about this a few years ago…
Don't call them frozen conflicts! Almost by accident, I seem to have written another book.. With . We wrote five papers on post-Soviet conflicts. He did Donbas, I did Abkhazia, S. Ossetia, Transdniestria and NK. Big intro makes it a book. 1/4
Wow. "The main problem with our military-political position is that we are a in a state of complete geopolitical isolation." Says military commentator live on main Russian state TV channel.
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In an extremely rare moment of candour on Russian state TV today, defence columnist Mikhail Khodaryonok gave a damning assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine and his country's international isolation. It's fairly long but worth your time so I've added subtitles.
A reminder, if it was needed, that territorial integrity is an important principle of international law, but so are self-determination and the non-use of force. In some cases (Ukraine) the moral weight is clearly on one side.
My short piece in today on the geopolitical vacuum that is enabling the new fighting around #Karabakh "The flare-up can also be seen as a symptom of a world in which the U.S. is no longer acting to defuse regional conflicts."
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9 To visitors Tiraspol looks like a Soviet theme park with Lenin statues and hammers and sickles. It's very much part of Russky Mir. That makes for great photos. But one Transdniestrian told me,
“My head is in Russia, but my legs walk towards Europe”
My overview for of the ongoing conflict over Armenian/Azerbaijani cultural heritage and the particular risks that some precious Armenian monuments now face, as they are handed over to Azerbaijani control.
One of my 2021 resolutions is to spend less time answering the Twitter police. But briefly: read Black Garden. A whole chain of events in 1987-88 led to conflict. Armenians in Azerbaijani village of Chardakhlu saying they were beaten. Thousands of Azerbaijanis leaving Kafan.
A great read from the inimitable on how Tbilisi Armenians and Azerbaijanis still try to maintain sanity and respect, despite what's going on next door
Aggressive speech by Pres. Aliyev sends message: War goes on, on his terms, towards Lachin and encirclement of #Karabakh. The Az. public is behind him. Positions himself against “Great Powers” and Minsk Group mediators. No mention (here at least) of US effort to mediate.
Still highly relevant, I'd say. My 2016 paper on how Armenians and Azerbaijanis became "prisoners of the Caucasus," trapped in a security dilemma. The map can change a bit at huge human cost. Overcoming it fully requires a much more serious peace process
I've been avoiding mentioning the "Syrians to Azerbaijan" #Karabakh story--very alarming if true, but little info. This is the most credible report I've seen on it. Yet question remains how could Sunni fighters be persuaded to go and fight for mostly Shiite Azerbaijan?
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Some clarifications on the Syrians apparently being shipped by Turkey to fight in Azerbaijan (previous thread here: twitter.com/Elizrael/statu)
I know some of the men who've signed up to go & spoke to relatives & friends of men who've left (but no confirmation of their arrival)
Yes, it's not the only story in and around #Karabakh... but still significant and alarming. As some have been questioning the Syrian jihadis story, here is a French journalist working on the Middle East who has checked it out.
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Replying to @Tom_deWaal
Short thread here. To sum up: we talked to fighters and a commander, about 1000 fighters from Al Hamza and Sultan Murad but also from refugee camps recruited in northern Syria, sent by plane since 18th September, paid 8000 TL (1000$). At least 2 of them killed Sunday. twitter.com/GuillaumPerrie…
Finally out! After 2 years of tramping round distant corners of Europe, my report with ideas for better “engagement without recognition” with Abkhazia, Transdniestria and northern Cyprus—and why Ukraine is different. There are many twists and turns.
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22 I’m not a big expert on Transdniestria, just a public one. To read more find, read and . Read the always interesting (though we don’t always agree). Here’s a good recent piece by
First copy in and I like the new cover! Published in the US on December 1 and in the UK on January 31. The perfect Christmas present for your Caucasus-loving friends and family. global.oup.com/academic/produ
Thank you to for the chance to go deeper into the deeply intractable dynamics of the #Karabakh dispute. They go back to the years 1918-21 and make it in many ways an unfinished WWI conflict
Strong statement from UN human rights commissioner calling out violations of international humanitarian law, attacks on civilians and destruction, especially in #Karabakh itself. ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/