Todd Stetler

@ToddStetler

KY : election & political reporting : political cartography : he/him/his

Louisville, KY
Vrijeme pridruživanja: ožujak 2015.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    4. stu 2019.

    This is going to be my thread of what to watch for on election night in Kentucky! Everything I post will be about how a Democrats should be performing in order to win statewide. First up will be ancestrally democratic counties that a dem may need to win.

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    BREAKING: The Iowa caucus.

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 15 sati

    So far I feel most comfortable predicting that the winners tonight are people who argue that Iowa should not go first and/or use a caucus.

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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    New entrance polls of Iowa Democrats: 63% want candidate who beats Trump 35% agrees w/you on issues ** 26% very liberal 40% somewhat liberal 34% moderate/conservative ** 59% college grad 41% no college degree ** 36% — 65+ 27% — 45-64 17% — 30-44 20% — under 30

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    Widespread reports of Joe Biden barely/not viable in types of precincts he should be to have any type of chance. Having a hard time seeing him in top three...long way to go.

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  6. 31. sij
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  7. 31. sij

    With every one of these candidates fairly close to the 15% threshold, the race is very much so up in the air. If any candidate misses the 15% mark in any of the four congressional districts it’s unlikely that they could win the caucus.

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  8. 31. sij

    This really helps highlight how important the 15% threshold will be on Monday. Klobuchar manages to get a delegate because she hits 15% in Iowa’s conservative 4th congressional district. And Biden leapfrogs Buttigieg because Buttigieg only hits the threshold in two districts.

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  9. 31. sij

    Here’s the poll breakdown and my calculation of delegate totals: poll % Sanders - 24% Warren - 19% Buttigieg - 17% Biden - 15% Klobuchar -11% Delegate #’s Sanders - 13 Warren - 12 Biden - 8 Buttigieg - 7 Klobuchar - 1

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  10. 31. sij

    Yesterday released a poll of the Iowa Democratic caucus that includes a breakdown by congressional district. That’s important because some delegates are assigned by district and some statewide. Vote % and delegate totals can be very different because of these rules.

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  11. 17. sij

    This is big news. Rep Lee only won re-election by a couple of points in 2018. Without an incumbent democrats have a very good chance of flipping this district in November.

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  12. 16. sij

    It took exactly 67 days from when I tweeted this for the words “ok boomer” to come out of the mouth of Chief Justice John Roberts.

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    The miners blocking a coal train in Eastern Kentucky to protest unpaid wages say they won’t leave until every miner is paid what they are owed.

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    13. sij

    Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr, R-Lexington, urges her fellow senators to watch movie "Boy Erased" and support House Bill 199, a ban on the quack practice of "conversion therapy" for gay youths. 18 states and D.C. have passed such bans. ^JC

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    9. sij
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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    8. sij

    House Bill 199, by Rep. Lisa Willner, D-Louisville, would ban "conversion therapy" - the pseudoscience of trying to "fix" someone's sexual orientation - for kids, wards of the state or adults in protective care in Kentucky. ^JC

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  17. 30. pro 2019.

    Note: Each % is based on Clinton’s share of the two party vote in that college or university’s home precinct.

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  18. 30. pro 2019.

    Major KY colleges and universities by vote share given to Clinton in 2016: Transy - 88.9% UofL - 86.7% Bellarmine - 77.1% Centre - 73.5% KSU - 67.7% EKU - 65.1% UK - 62.8% Murray - 58.2% Morehead - 57.1% Berea - 53.9% Georgetown - 50.1% NKU - 41.3% Cumberland’s - 32.4%

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  19. 25. pro 2019.

    My grandmother got an animatronic Santa that flosses. It started doing the dance and she said “oh look! He has polio!!”

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    19. pro 2019.

    Me: wow I can’t believe you remembered that they got married there : *scoffs* I have a categorized memory of the location of every gay wedding ever

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  21. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Mr. President, let’s set politics aside. My husband earned all his accolades after a lifetime of service. I’m preparing for the first holiday season without the man I love. You brought me down in a way you can never imagine and your hurtful words just made my healing much harder.

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