The 10% scenario is not so outlandish. But nominal 10%. In real terms I doubt it will yield as much. I don't see how the US will avoid 4%-7% inflation in the coming years. And we shouldn't forget that many/most passive investors prob won't stay invested in a real bear market.
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Replying to @GregVous
It's dependent on many variables, but yeah, it might happen. That said, in four 20 year periods from Jan 1928-2008. The largest advance was 1948-68, at 3.2x. 10% at current levels would 5x+ S&P's current value. Seems unlikely.
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Replying to @Tinyvalue @GregVous
Inflation might help, but I like to stay away from anticipating that, haha.
1:18 PM - 28 Oct 2018
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