I know. It's not something I believe, but if a member of the herd said it to me I wouldn't be able to argue with it.
You were joking? Good old text. I'm writing an article on this right now. I called 18 reps and asked them how to measure expected S&P 500 returns. 88%~ of them said "on a 10 year historical basis." GG
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I think the first distortion began after the tech crash, when retail brokers were forced to stop stock picking and had to put clients into mutual funds. The BDs only wanted to smooth revenues. But the impact was to narrow the diversity of opinions in markets. Then indexing..
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Indexing further narrowed of market participants. Value guys were done completely by 2016. Lost AUM or quit. Now here we are with nothing but growth lemmings, and guess what? The Fed is taking away the punchbowl. If you own stocks today, YOU are fighting the Fed.
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Jesus, talk about short sighted. This is MBS 2.0 with far greater implications and downside. In 2001 there just wasn't an available data set that included nation wide real estate weakness. So of course, "no data" means "not possible"...... Disaster ensued
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