A needle in a hay stack. Without an obvious margin of safety; I say speculation.
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Replying to @Tinyvalue
Are you seriously saying even with the benefit of hindsight, you think Amazon was overvalued 3 years ago?
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Replying to @alphagen68
An early-stage Amazon would've been a needle. As for three years ago, if you're asking me whether or not I think it was cheap, the answer is no. As a GARP, perhaps semi-reasonable. Ultimately its SBC program would've differed me.https://khursheedholdings.wordpress.com/category/amzn/
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Replying to @Tinyvalue
I see. I think I understand. So you would never have owned the likes of CHTR either - correct?
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Replying to @alphagen68
Just to be clear not referring to SBC, just highlighting another example of value creation without short-term earnings.
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Replying to @alphagen68
I use DCF to forecast. Growth faster than 25% is a no, unless it's painfully undervalued by conservative measures. I could care less about a few years of earnings; there's no rational way I could forecast $1m for normalized $6,600 absent sum-of-the-parts/net-net
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Replying to @Tinyvalue
DCF is definitely the best approach - but don’t just don’t extrapolate from recent years. Understand the business and build the model. You might be surprised how much FCF power a low earnings company can have in a few years. Good luck
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Replying to @alphagen68
Would you mind explaining how one would reliably extrapolate into the future absent recent history, beyond event-driven special situations? RIP low-risk high uncertainty; MoS today, knowing tomorrow won't work out perfectly; acquisitions & expansions generally unreliable.
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Replying to @alphagen68
In short, understand the biz and size the market opportunity. Adjust as new info becomes avail. And always watch for disruption risks/opportunities.
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I'm just not this kind of investor, but I respect those who follow this approach. As soon as CoC is mentioned though, I catch some Zzz's haha!
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