1/20. Democracy is precious and exceptional.
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Timothy Snyder
@TimothyDSnyder
Levin Professor of History at Yale. Author of "On Tyranny," with 20 new lessons on Ukraine, "Our Malady," "Road to Unfreedom," "Black Earth," and "Bloodlands"
snyder.substack.comJoined March 2015
Timothy Snyder’s Tweets
It's a mafia, not a state, and they will walk back or swallow anything that is profitable. Infighting rarely is. This also exposes the stupidity of saying Putin needs off-ramps or to save face in Ukraine. He's a dictator, and can make up anything he wants.
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New reports claim that Wagner boss turns troops back from Moscow. This doesn’t make any sense to me. Putin ordered Prighozin killed earlier today. How does he walk that back? How does Prighozin survive after this? Putin never forgives nor forgets apple.news/AksyHCoJOStucC
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I love it how the whole of Russian Z-snakepit is now twisting hands in its dramatic rant:
"The Motherland is in danger, the Russian blood is being spilled, and a civil war is underway now"
"There's now fratricide, a stab in the back upon the regular military that is heroically… Show more
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Wagner (Prigozhin) is out of Ukraine, fighting for control of Russia. Akhmat (Kadyrov) is departing Ukraine to block Wagner.
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"For all of the actors concerned, it might be bad to lose in Ukraine, but it is worse to lose in Russia." From my S-bst-ck piece of 5 October. Keeping in mind that details are out of date, might be a useful read now.
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Reports that Putin has left Moscow. That's what Stalin didn't do in 1941.
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Putin's plane left for St Petersburg, and Peskov promptly denied Putin leaving Moscow, which in good old Russian tradition assured the population Putin has left Moscow.
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"For all of the actors concerned, it might be bad to lose in Ukraine, but it is worse to lose in Russia." From my S-bst-ck piece of 5 October. Keeping in mind that details are out of date, might be a useful read now.
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At this moment, Prigozhin's propaganda is much better than Putin's.
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Prigozhin, audio message 12:46PM BST, on support by the locals and the "mine barrier" in Rostov:
"Why is the country supporting us? Because we went with a March for Justice. We were hit, first with artillery, then with helicopters. We went without a single round fired, we didn’t… Show more
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Replying to
"The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months"
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This will not seem to matter at the frontline now but if it keeps up it will matter rather a lot in a couple of weeks.
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Replying to @PhillipsPOBrien
Prigozhin is basically sitting on one of the supply windpipes of the Russian army in Ukraine. This is hugely important and gives him some real leverage. twitter.com/gresselgustav/…
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Putin last year: Ukraine's army should lay down its weapons and greet Russian forces as liberators
Putin today: the prisoners I pardoned so they could join my former caterer's militia should please stop participating in his armed uprising against my defense ministry
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Putin's speaking on Russian TV. He says he's launched a "special military operation" in the Donbas and isn't planning to occupy Ukraine. But he's demanding Ukraine's army lay down its weapons and says Kyiv will be responsible for "possible bloodshed."
This is it.
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Prigozhin is threatening Putin, Putin is invoking 1917, Wagner forces have taken Rostov and are moving toward Moscow, thus far meeting little resistance and gaining some civilian support.
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I think Wagner might have bypassed Voronezh on the way to Moscow, but the point is solid. Wagner was the most effective Russian force in Ukraine, but it's been incalculably more effective inside Russia thus far.
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-Rostov-on-Don: Population 1.2 million inhabitants;
-Voronezh: Population 1.05 million inhabitants;
Cities in Russia captured by Wagner within 12 hours without any losses.
-Bakhmut: Population 70,000 inhabitants;
City in Ukraine captured by Wagner in approximately 10 months… Show more
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❗️Prigozhin audio message 10:19AM BST - "no one will surrender to the demands of the President":
"Regarding the betrayal of the Motherland, the President is deeply mistaken. We’re patriots of our Motherland. We fought and we are fighting, all fighters of PMC Wagner. And no one…~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
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Replying to
Good morning. Wagner have occupied the military HQ and FSB office in Rostov.
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True and important. But the Wagner men taking the headquarters of the Russian military seem real enough.
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Replying to @maxseddon
For those of you new to this media environment. The main sources of info are an army that lies about everything; a warlord who owns an infamous troll factory and lied about it for years; and the Kremlin. And Russia destroyed the media, so there aren't any good independent sources
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Russian commander holding machine gun calls on other Russian commander to cease rebellion. Ukrainian commander sports baby yoda patch on his uniform. Good morning.
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