Calls for regulation seem to sometimes come at the heels of when a company is already dying, even if it doesn’t seem that way at the time. The most recent example is of course Microsoft seeming unstoppable during its antitrust case only to be completely disrupted by mobile (1/x)
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There do seem to be some parallels with Facebook now. The purported misuse of power sure, but soon a number of market missteps by trying to bully or buy growth. If you squint, Snapchat v Instagram was somewhat strategically similar to Netscape v IE (2/x)
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We also have failures that can be absorbed until they can *much later* be reversed, as in Facebook’s current Oculus project and Microsoft’s then Xbox. But soon there appears a market that can’t be just bought and whose very nature is antithetical to the dna of the company. (3/x)
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Mobile was the undoing of Microsoft (or at least what Microsoft used to be). Microsoft’s fundamental business model couldn’t be applied until it was too late, partially because it wasn’t a “real market” at the beginning and would have cannibalized their “real” sales. (4/x)
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It *feels* like Facebook is soon to run up against that now. History doesn’t have to repeat itself of course, and maybe Zuck can outmaneuver it, but I think that 15 years from now it won’t be regulation that is responsible for Facebook’s fall, but some disruption.
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Another thing all of these examples have in common is being far down the path of burning goodwill to buy profits and market position. But goodwill has inertia, and profit does not.
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