Bitcoin Theory

@TheoryBitcoin

Ph.D. in Computer Science, P&D in Bitcoin

Vrijeme pridruživanja: svibanj 2019.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    30. pro 2019.

    Short term data BTC/USD price forecast (unlogged) for the next 366 days (~EOY 2020) with 90% confidence bands

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  2. 1. velj

    China blocked Twitter. Twitter blocked . There are not many really uncensored systems in the World: Human Mind, Internet and Bitcoin.

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  3. 1. velj

    Bayesian regression with 4th degree polynomial fit and 95% credible bands.

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  4. 1. velj

    Short term data BTC/USD price forecast for the next 28 days. Bayesian with 95% credible bands.

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  5. 1. velj

    Short term data BTC/USD price forecast for the next 28 days. ARIMA (unlogged) with 90% confidence bands.

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  6. 29. sij
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  7. 26. sij

    Ray Dalio - Cash is trash; BTC is Untouchable; Libra Maybe; Stocks are Good; Gold is Best. - Libra backed by basket of Cash is not Trash? - BTC (~$0.15T/~9m holders) is Untouchable, but (~$1.3T/~3k fund holders) is Good? OK, boomer via

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  8. 22. sij

    'Hodl' as Investment Strategy. If you clever invested $1 per minute in . Buy and hold since August 2017 till now you would have ~60% profit. According to Harry Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory: ~100% profit looks like optimal "threshold" for portfolio rebalancing.

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  9. 20. sij

    Number of addresses holding more than 0.1 .

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  10. 19. sij

    Don't turn into a cult. maximalists must read: Harvey, Graham (2013). Food, Sex and Strangers: Understanding Religion as Everyday Life.

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  11. 16. sij

    If 4th degree is very controversial for you, then show them Bayesian regression at least with 3rd degree polynomial fit 😅

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  12. 16. sij

    When next time another one brainless econometrist (, ...) will show you log growth curve with "something" like 1st or 2nd degree polynomial fit. Show them Bayesian regression with 4th degree polynomial fit.

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  13. 16. sij

    The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a hypothesis that states that asset prices reflect all available information. The May 6, 2010, flash crash, permanent crashes might be the best evidence that the EMH falls into being a tautology or a pseudoscientific construct.

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  14. 12. sij

    Liquidity back in focus 👀

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  15. 12. sij

    Thanks for confirmation 😂

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  16. 12. sij

    Blockstream's sidechain - similar to investment bank's dark pool of liquidity. Tool that hide information about amounts and even the asset itself is being sent, collect this information and enables anonymous insider trading for Blockstream's investors: , ...

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  17. 9. sij

    Number of addresses holding more than 0.1 .

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  18. 8. sij

    The introduction of derivatives markets leads to a decrease in the volatility of the underlying asset. The investors could hedge their positions due to the increased market liquidity and thus, reduce their risk.

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  19. 7. sij

    Bitcoin mining rate: 54000 Bitcoins per 30 days Bitcoin hash rate: ~110000000*10^12 H/s Antminer S17+: ~73*10^12 H/s, ~2.92 kWh 1 kWh Cost: $0.1 (avg) Cooling Cost: 25% of energy consumption Time: 30*24 hours ((110000000*10^12)/(73*10^12)*2.92*0.1*1.25*24*30)/54000 = $7333.33

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  20. 7. sij

    Not front-running. Unregulated exchanges can hide information about USD wired transfers to front-running users, but can't hide information about transfers.

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  21. 6. sij

    ~100% profit for looks like optimal "threshold rebalancing". 'Hodl' as Investment Strategy. If you clever invested $1 per minute in . Buy and hold since August 2017 till now you would have ~1% profit.

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