The introduction of #Russian conventional forces to the #Bakhmut frontline has offset the culmination of the #Wagner Group’s offensive and retained the initiative for Russian operations around the city.
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2/ The ISW December 27 forecast that the Russian offensive against #Bakhmut was culminating was inaccurate.
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4/ Russian forces are continuing to conduct offensive operations northeast and southwest of #Bakhmut and have secured limited territorial gains since capturing Soledar on January 12.
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5/ ISW does not forecast the imminent fall of #Bakhmut to Russian forces, although the Ukrainian command may choose to withdraw rather than risk unacceptable losses.
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6/ It is extraordinarily unlikely that Russian forces will be able to conduct a surprise encirclement of Ukrainian forces in #Bakhmut.
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Russia's Pyrrhic victories on approaches to Bakhmut prove Russia is doomed to lose this war, as such advances only open Russia to counterattack & are destroying its military. Without these reinforcements the advance/attacks would halt as Wagner is expended
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Now the mobilized will be put thru the grinder, after the prisoners have been used up. But with far greater political consequences each time.
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Ukrainian forces didn't get a break and now they are facing fresh troops.
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"Budanov stated that there are currently 326,000 Russian forces fighting in Ukraine, excluding the roughly 150,000 mobilized personnel still in training grounds that Russian forces have reportedly not yet committed to hostilities."
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