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TheLawyerCraig's profile
Craig
Craig
Craig
@TheLawyerCraig

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Craig

@TheLawyerCraig

Now: Lawyer • Then: 10+ years in USAF flying the mighty F-15E • Covid data guy • Bergdorf's dad • @universityofga & @NorthwesternLaw

Chicago, IL
thelawyercraig.substack.com
Joined June 2012

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    1. Craig‏ @TheLawyerCraig Aug 26

      The Twitter punditry class should realize that there are too many confounders to draw the simple #Covid19 conclusions that we're seeing ad nauseum right now based on correlation. These confounders can be offsetting or compounding. Right now, they're compounding. 🧵Thread🧵 1/x

      6 replies 28 retweets 114 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Craig‏ @TheLawyerCraig Aug 26

      What do I mean by a compounding confounder? I mean that other variables—those often absent from stories and widely shared tweets—are compounding (or adding to) several states' current Covid conditions. 2/x

      1 reply 2 retweets 21 likes
      Show this thread
      Craig‏ @TheLawyerCraig Aug 26

      Here are the majority of variables that are in the mix, to varying degrees of effect: Delta saturation, percentage vaccinated, percentage with prior infection, seasonality/regional location, behavior (willingness to gather indoors), health/age of populous, and...masking. 3/x

      8:07 AM - 26 Aug 2021
      • 4 Retweets
      • 36 Likes
      • Paul Kempf Aaron Astor O Riordan Jason Broander Winston Smith Country Western Feline Steve, Reggie's dad Douglas Lukasik Will Collier
      3 replies 4 retweets 36 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Craig‏ @TheLawyerCraig Aug 26

          Only two tend to matter to the technocratic class: vaccinations and masks. But I suspect pounding these two factors + a heavy focus on "swab positives" above most other Covid data will yield quite a bit of confusion in 4-6 weeks—and potentially increase vax hesitancy. 4/x

          3 replies 3 retweets 39 likes
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        3. Craig‏ @TheLawyerCraig Aug 26

          Does anyone remember this past spring? Alpha raged in the UK, then made its way to our shores to mixed effect. Michigan got smacked in the teeth, and other Mid-Atlantic/Northeast/Upper Midwest states took a harder hit than the southern states. 5/x

          1 reply 4 retweets 25 likes
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        4. Craig‏ @TheLawyerCraig Aug 26

          Vaccinations were still comparatively low, but the states getting hit had masking requirements and "good" behavior on their side. This is the effect of offsetting confounders though. Seasonality/regional differences & infection naivety hurt more than other factors helped. 6/x

          1 reply 4 retweets 34 likes
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        5. Craig‏ @TheLawyerCraig Aug 26

          If cases in the southern states decline throughout September despite a largely open, mask-free school existence and lower vax numbers and we instead see an increase that starts in the upper Midwest, then Midwest and Northeast like last year...then what? 7/x

          1 reply 6 retweets 44 likes
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        6. Craig‏ @TheLawyerCraig Aug 26

          Covid + summer + southern = trouble. It was trouble last summer. Most expected some level of trouble this summer, but Delta put it on steroids. Low vax & poorer health add to the trouble. But what if Covid + northern + autumn = trouble regardless of offsetting factors? 8/x

          2 replies 5 retweets 42 likes
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        7. Craig‏ @TheLawyerCraig Aug 26

          That's the kind of trouble that will move the political/media/Twitter discourse from garbage to absolute dumpster fire in a heartbeat. I don't want that. So I'd love to see us pivot on a couple things... 9/x

          2 replies 2 retweets 47 likes
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        8. Craig‏ @TheLawyerCraig Aug 26

          Move from "swab positives" to outcomes. Don't blast every semi-notable person who has a PCR-positive test. Get back to not mass testing all asymptomatic people, especially those vaccinated or who know/show prior infection. 10/x

          3 replies 8 retweets 93 likes
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        9. Craig‏ @TheLawyerCraig Aug 26

          I've put off work long enough today, so I can't get as fine-grained as I'd like to regarding cloth masks (esp. for kids) and outdoors and vaccination passports and prior infection and decency and medical treatment of unvaccinated and a bunch of other shit that's on my mind. 11/x

          1 reply 1 retweet 34 likes
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        10. Craig‏ @TheLawyerCraig Aug 26

          But the upshot at this point probably should be something like: vaccination protects you from the worst outcomes on your path to (almost certainly) getting infected with this endemic virus, for which you will not be made to feel like a failure or bad person no matter what. 12/x

          7 replies 12 retweets 105 likes
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        11. End of conversation
        1. DianeDelgadoLeMaire‏ @CPARecruiterHOU Aug 30
          Replying to @TheLawyerCraig

          Can you take over Dr Fauci’s job please?

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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