Stephen Koukoulas’s Tweets

Jun 20

Some smart money folk are stepping into the Australian bond market... too much is priced in, some slowing is in the offing in any event, longer run the view is inflation will fall away quite sharply in 2023. The same ones who made a killing a year ago on the hiking cycle

David Plank

@DavidPlank12

Replying to

Stephen, one day out. Thursday i think.

RBA Gov Lowe is speaking Wednesday - topic: Inflation and the Monetary Policy Framework. A good chance to outline the scenario for a rapid fall away in inflation in 2023 - of course after a few more hikes.

The Sydney Morning Herald

Absoltely fair for politicians to coment on RBA policy - should be a lot, lot more of it. The RBA is after all answerable to the Parliament/Government. But this from the Greens is in the Ooh Eeh Ooh Ah Aah Ting Tang Walla Walla Bing of ideas

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@smh

· 15h

Greens call on Reserve Bank to ‘pause’ interest rates until after budget | Anthony Galloway smh.com.au/politics/feder

10h

If the Canberra Raiders win by 114 points or more they will move to 7th and play Roosters in the final: Souths slip to 8th and will play Melbourne Storm. #NRLTigersRaiders

14h

Huge week ahead for the economy: RBA will hike Tues - 50bps taking cash rate to a close to neutral 2.35%. GDP Weds - likely to confirm the economy was booming thru to June qtr with growth close to 3.75%... little wonder the econony has run out of workers & inflation is rampant

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McRae questions why tackles went unrewarded in qualifying final

Real Footy (AFL)

@agerealfooty

Sep 3

Collingwood coach Craig McRae said the Magpies were not rewarded as they should have been for their tackling after losing an epic qualifying final by six points. #AFLFinals

theage.com.au

Collingwood coach Craig McRae said the Magpies were not rewarded as they should have been for their tackling after losing an epic qualifying final by six points.

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7AFL

@7AFL

Sep 3

"They just don't pay free kicks to Ginnivan. There's a seperate set of rules for him." 😳

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The US unemployment rate ticks up. A sign tighter policy is starting to work and that inflation is set to cascade.

From a few weeks ago: why the stage 3 income tax cuts need to be abolished. Glad to see so much support for the move. It would be irresponsible not to get rid of them.

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· Aug 14

Good economic policy demands the Stage 3 tax income cuts are reversed, abandoned. They are unfair & cost around $15 - $20 billion per annum & this figure will rise. The economy needs tighter policy, not the stimulus that these crazy tax cuts will deliver. My Two Minute Take

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Those bloody solar panels will no longer work. Maybe Matt Canavan was right after all?

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The Naked Scientists

@NakedScientists

· Sep 2

What will happen when the sun dies? dlvr.it/SXh6kn

Another sign of the disinflation pressures being unleashed. Don’t miss the boat folks.

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*Walter Bloomberg

@DeItaone

· Sep 1

*WTI Oil Falls 3.8% to Session-Low $86.18, Would Be Lowest Closing Price Since Jan. 25

This is a further indirect sign that inflation is about to plummet. The rba goes 50 next week and then a couple of 25s in the final months of 2022 and that’ll be about it for hikes. Cash rate peak 2.75-3%.

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CommSec

@CommSec

· Sep 1

Iron ore futures slid US$8.37 or 8.0% to US$96.39 a tonne after the lockdown of Chengdu revived fears that the virus will continue to hamper China's economic recovery.

Yes indeed. Excellent.

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Jim Chalmers MP

@JEChalmers

· Sep 2

Welcome and very positive coverage in the @FinancialReview of @danielleiwood’s terrific contribution to the #JobsSummit and to #ausecon more broadly “An economist emerges as the summit’s early star” at afr.com/news/economy/a #auspol @GrattanInst @WomenEconAU

A small example of the disinflation that be being unleashed. With a couple more RBA hikes, it’s very likely inflation will hit the target in late 2023, maybe a touch earlier

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Peter Morgan

@psimpsonmorgan

· Sep 1

Recent energy prices.

This chart on global warming is extraordinary.

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Bill Gross

@Bill_Gross

· Aug 31

This is unbelievable to watch.. twitter.com/carlnasman/sta…

Financial education and literacy has not been mentioned at the jobs summit - as far as I have seen. This is a vital element in attaining fair wages, income management, job opportunities, super and financial security. It was a key issue we looked at at ES4W.

According the PropTrack house price series, house prices are down 2.7% from the recent peak. Ho hum…

The house price fall to date from the peak is 3.5%. And that after a 28% rise in the prior year and a half. A bust, crash, disaster in the eyes of a few poor misguided souls

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Replying to

and

They're also often the people who are against policies that would keep the unemployed out of poverty. If (allegedly) the economic system requires a certain level of unemployed to operate, then shouldn't we properly support those who need to be unemployed?

Here’s a productivity enhancing reform that should considered at the Jobs Summit.

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Fred Schultz

@FredSchultz35

· Aug 31

Oh come on!

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As Peter notes, perhaps 4.5% unemployment is consistent with the inflation target. It certainly isnt 3.5%

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Peter Tulip

@peter_tulip

· Aug 31

Replying to @TheKouk

I agree. Though estimates are closer to 4.5%. What we would like and what we can have are different things -- it is frustrating that so many comments confuse the two. Wishful thinking should not replace empirical regularities.

Jobs summit no silver bullet for fractured labour market

What the jobs summit needs to consider. au.finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-summ.

au.finance.yahoo.com

Many factors are contributing to our overheating labour market. So, what can the new Government's jobs summit hope to achieve?

Replying to

I must confess I am not all that familiar with the PropTrack house price index also out today. Quite different results from Corelogic. Will investigate further

Corelogic data confirm a further moderate fall in house prices. No surprises here. Further moderate falls in the next few months likely before a base forms in early 2023.

Note: both the RBA & Treasury say the unemployment rate must rise to 4% if inflation is to return to target. This is correct. I trust this basic truth will get plenty of coverage at today’s summit.

The economy is at over full employment. The unemployment rate at current levels cannot be sustained. Wages growth must lift further to sort this out & longer run investment in skills & education are essential. A small level of immigration needed too. It’s remarkably simple.

Peter Tulip

@peter_tulip

Complaints about excessive housing demand are like blaming an over-crowded bus on “too many passengers”. The efficient and equitable policy solution is to provide more buses. 2/2

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The Ghost of Christopher Hitchens

@phantomhitch

That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.

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Replying to

Was just about to share this myself...he's on the money with this

Yes. Economy is still robust. A booming labour market is great for spending.

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Financial Review

@FinancialReview

· Aug 31

The Harvey Norman chairman says middle Australia is still buying new TVs, beds and sofas even though interest rates are rising. bit.ly/3RjKxsL

Brilliant economic management. Let’s lock in low unemployment, ramp up wages growth and do something to address the poor record on productivity. All aboard the prosperity train!

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Jim Chalmers MP

@JEChalmers

· Aug 31

We want more opportunities for more Australians in more parts of the country. The Jobs & Skills Summit is about bringing people together to do just that - but it doesn’t end on Friday. It’s what we’re about every single day. #jobssummit #auspol #ausecon

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The supply of new dwellings is being held back by weather and materials and labour shortages it would seem. GDP next week still on track for 0.8% qq growth

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Alex Joiner

@IFM_Economist

· Aug 31

GDP partial construction work done materially weaker than expectations with declines across all key sectors, some early downside to market forecast of GDP for June quarter. Residential work particularly weak.

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Credit growth still strong Interest rates still along way from being restrictive

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Alex Joiner

@IFM_Economist

· Aug 31

Owner occupiers have started shying away from borrowing quicker than investors.

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