Conversation

Smerity
@Smerity
Zaremba et al. (as I know him 🤣) asks the timeline for self driving cars.
@elonmusk
makes a bold statement of two years for full self driving, three years for an order of magnitude better than humans. These gains are not binary, they can still be incremental even in driving.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Question regarding slaughter bots - "any competent drone company could do it".
@shivon
notes that biological and chemical attacks are right now quite possible with minimal work but that society has guarded against it.
@elonmusk
argues regulation is two years for study, ...
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Smerity
@Smerity
two years for discussing how to do oversight, then first rule six years later.
@elonmusk
argues the backlash from the first large scale AI disaster scenario where we had no preventative regulation will hamper progress far more than having had AI regulation in the first place.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Q: re how invasive neural link tech would need to be.
@elonmusk
thinks it will be invasive but similar to lasik. Without it equivalent to your ears against a factory's wall - no good information. Sees this as necessary to maintain competitive advantage vs rapid progress of AI.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Even if half of all new produced vehicles are autonomous, it's 2%/year that would be pushed to unemployed.
@elonmusk
thinks AGI is going to be an issue before self driving unemployment - thinks five to ten years before AGI beats humans generally. Insanely optimistic estimate O_o
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Smerity
@Smerity
@elonmusk
thinks there's no limit in energy for humans - we have a useful fusion reactor in the sky - our limit is purely on how many photovoltaics we have.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Ask to Jim: what are the exciting architectures? On chip memory to ensure data exactly next to compute and partitioning problems to have high bandwidth interconnects where you need it.
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@Smerity
Q to Elon: How do we convince society as a whole that AI will be better, convince them to give trust, when statistics and intuition can be at odds.
@elonmusk
thinks over time statistics will win out - even anecdotally / occasional video evidence to overwhelm negative anecdotes.
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Smerity
@Smerity
@elonmusk
says that of the tragic failure cases in the past, they had extensive investigations (internal + govt) to analyze + show it wasn't an obvious fault of Tesla. He notes there will be many continued battles going forward however.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Q re what AGI will look like to arrive -
@karpathy
and
@elonmusk
both claim it will be the jump that catches us. Extreme sub human behaviour to super human with no long duration "near" human level. It won't work until it really does.
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