Probability came up at work: an experiment works 1% of the time and we are running 100 in parallel. We only need at least one to work. What is the chance of a success? I guessed 50%. Wrong but not too far off.
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It's easy to approach via chance of failure, ie no experiments work It's like flipping 100 coins and getting all tails, with biased coins that land on tails 99% of the time Chance of failure = (0.99)^100 = 36.6 % Chance of success = 63.3 %
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For a little fun, I guess, I thought about it in a series. How often would you fail n experiments if it's a n/n-1 fail rate? It's tends toward a limit as n->inf of n/n-1 which is 1/e is about 0.36. I probably knew this back in calcpic.twitter.com/RSlY9teDNk
5:39 PM - 22 Aug 2018
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