Probability came up at work: an experiment works 1% of the time and we are running 100 in parallel. We only need at least one to work. What is the chance of a success? I guessed 50%. Wrong but not too far off.
It's easy to approach via chance of failure, ie no experiments work It's like flipping 100 coins and getting all tails, with biased coins that land on tails 99% of the time Chance of failure = (0.99)^100 = 36.6 % Chance of success = 63.3 %
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For a little fun, I guess, I thought about it in a series. How often would you fail n experiments if it's a n/n-1 fail rate? It's tends toward a limit as n->inf of n/n-1 which is 1/e is about 0.36. I probably knew this back in calcpic.twitter.com/RSlY9teDNk
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