I know this is hard to think about this, but... We're almost certainly all going to be introduced to this pathogen, one way or the other—vaccines or exposure. The current increased transmissibility path means the time to make that choice, affirmatively, is shorter and shorter.
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I believe the worst of the crisis is/will be over for many wealthy countries soon. We had large outbreaks and mass vaccination. In my view, our variant/efficacy fears are a bit misguided (though keep watching, sure). Not so for the many billions with little to no prior immunity.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted The Associated Press
So I see this. There’s not much to say until details are published. However, there’s enough we know from the other more transmissible variants to realize it’s already an emergency. Places like Vietnam *urgently* need vaccines—they had no outbreaks, hence little prior immunity.https://twitter.com/AP/status/1398652362353524737 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted
Ah, Alex shows up. Predictable rituals of life. I do want more data on the two vaccines from China, and the efficacy of both against symptomatic breakthroughs is lower. But from all real life data we have, they both greatly help prevent severe disease. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1398743127876374531 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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If we can make billions of doses of mRNA vaccines, let's go. If the choice is none vs any vaccine, real life data says *any* vaccine will help prevent deaths. I'm not advocating for a singular path. WHATEVER WE CAN DO AS FAST AS POSSIBLE. That is our global moral responsibility.
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Remember the freak out over Seychelles because, despite widespread vaccination with AstraZeneca and Sinopharm, it had an increase cases (though mostly among the unvaccinated)? They had 14 deaths total for all of May, as far as I know none among the vaccinated. Vaccines work.pic.twitter.com/wVerUkmo1c
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Meaghan Kall
Delta (formerly B.1.617.2) appears to be more severe in addition to more transmissible.
Terrible news for the unvaccinated and for countries without prior big outbreaks or mass vaccination. We must do everything we can—immediately—to speed up vaccination.https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1400489338425810951 …zeynep tufekci added,
Meaghan Kall @kallmemegThis is due to 2 new analyses on severity, one from England and one from Scotland. They both found the same: Increased severity of Delta (B.1.617.2) - Risk of A&E attendance (Hazard Ratio 1.67) - Risk of hospital admission (HR 2.61 England, 2.39 Scotland ) pic.twitter.com/LQlnjpo8d3Show this thread7 replies 130 retweets 232 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Paul Sax
It's now more plausible that, without an immediate and massive campaign to increase vaccine supply and speed up distribution, we'll end up with more deaths from COVID after we had vaccines that could prevent them. A repeat of sorts of the AIDS catastrophe.https://twitter.com/PaulSaxMD/status/1398418667935879171 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Paul SaxVerified account @PaulSaxMDThe analogy here with HIV by@zeynep is quite compelling -- specifically that most HIV-related deaths occurred *after* we had effective ART. The same might be true about Covid and effective vaccines, unless distribution rapidly improves. https://www.theinsight.org/p/we-need-to-get-real-about-how-the?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxOTY2MTIxLCJwb3N0X2lkIjozNjk1MzQ5OCwiXyI6ImlLeHJaIiwiaWF0IjoxNjIyMjQzNzU1LCJleHAiOjE2MjIyNDczNTUsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0xMTg0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.S1IzDV35qF9HgtPhsTI31d11ze0mxQ-TCQSk95142Vc …8 replies 66 retweets 195 likesShow this thread -
The White House just announced a donation of money and vaccine sharing with COVAX, the global program headed by WHO. That's great but WE NEED MORE VACCINES and thus we need to work to increase the supply ASAP. Money can't buy vaccines which don't exist. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/03/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-global-vaccine-distribution/ …pic.twitter.com/Dtej7WWcIQ
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Noah Weiland
Let me be honest. The sentiment is nice, but there is little chance that billions will be able to avoid getting infected FOR EVEN ANOTHER YEAR, let alone two, while waiting for vaccines. Increasing the supply NOW is the key. Otherwise, the pandemic will end, but with more deaths.https://twitter.com/noahweiland/status/1402685889835307014 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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They already committed to waiving the patents and sent a ton of materials/aid to other countries to increase development of vaccines. What else can they realistically do for other sovereign countries?https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/05/05/biden-waives-vaccine-patents/ …
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Obviously it's not a direct analogy, but during WW2 the USA requisitioned much of its private manufacturing manufacturing capacity to produce weapons and vehicles for Britain and the USSR. I'm theory there's way more they could do
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